MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		24	26	30	32	35	36	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Higher		13	15	22	21	16	18	23	19	21	14	15
Exceeded High		11	14	21	17	12	17	19	18	17	11	9
Scenario Percentage		85%	93%	95%	81%	75%	94%	83%	95%	81%	79%	60%
Avg Max Increase		11.68%	10.28%	10.00%	10.44%	9.89%	10.21%	12.73%	9.60%	8.34%	11.40%	19.78%
Max Increase		28.58%	23.82%	41.75%	52.14%	25.37%	24.90%	71.34%	38.14%	21.49%	26.77%	77.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	15	18	17	16	18	17	15	16	18	25
Avg Max Decline		-1.05%	-1.27%	-2.31%	-1.95%	-1.43%	-2.83%	-1.78%	-2.63%	-3.31%	-1.92%	-2.13%
Max Decline		-4.68%	-4.39%	-8.71%	-10.66%	-5.26%	-15.39%	-8.11%	-13.56%	-13.28%	-3.38%	-7.37%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	11	8	8	6	12	7	9	10	4	6
2014 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	No			Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		24	26	30	32	35	36	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Lower		11	11	8	11	19	18	13	17	15	22	21
Penetrated Low		7	7	6	7	12	14	7	10	13	19	20
Scenario Percentage		64%	64%	75%	64%	63%	78%	54%	59%	87%	86%	95%
Avg Max Decline		8.39%	5.72%	5.75%	8.02%	7.53%	7.50%	9.26%	13.52%	11.21%	14.29%	10.49%
Max Decline		17.36%	18.65%	13.94%	20.29%	13.51%	18.97%	24.06%	40.46%	44.00%	43.61%	31.02%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	11	10	18	18	16	18	16	15	16	18
Avg Max Increase		-1.19%	-1.62%	-2.39%	-2.89%	-1.09%	-2.10%	-4.04%	-1.31%	-3.27%	-2.57%	-1.92%
Max Increase		-5.97%	-3.71%	-5.32%	-6.82%	-6.39%	-7.53%	-19.07%	-5.36%	-16.69%	-8.52%	-10.08%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	11	7	15	3	9	13	15	8	7	4
2014 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		No	No				Yes	Yes
High	301.11	308.17	315.56	301.64	304.57	296.58	300.28	309.88	320.01	316.03	306.68	307.04
Low	290.01	295.74	296.54	293.00	278.08	279.06	282.10	286.75	294.06	292.30	289.62	283.51
Close/Last	298.11	308.13	296.66	300.77	286.49	283.47	287.44	304.87	312.03	296.40	295.69	303.08