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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Copper(CMX) as of Sep 30, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   25 25 25 23 20 24 31 20 21 21 24
Exceeded High   23 21 17 18 15 23 21 16 11 13 18
Scenario Percentage   92% 84% 68% 78% 75% 96% 68% 80% 52% 62% 75%
Avg Max Increase   9.39% 11.83% 9.21% 9.41% 10.48% 9.13% 7.60% 11.40% 18.15% 17.40% 6.26%
Max Increase   25.83% 54.10% 60.00% 24.20% 22.56% 31.09% 20.77% 42.38% 51.10% 70.42% 21.95%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 15 11 14 22 19 17 20 16 18 15
Avg Max Decline   -2.58% -2.20% -2.30% -2.09% -2.84% -1.93% -2.67% -4.06% -1.94% -2.31% -1.53%
Max Decline   -8.58% -9.41% -6.90% -15.00% -10.53% -5.49% -7.01% -11.29% -7.96% -10.87% -5.75%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 9 6 6 8 8 11 14 7 11 4
2024 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes Yes       Yes    
Action   Yes   Yes Yes No       Not Yet    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   20 20 19 22 24 21 13 25 24 24 21
Penetrated Low   12 15 14 18 18 14 11 17 18 15 14
Scenario Percentage   60% 75% 74% 82% 75% 67% 85% 68% 75% 63% 67%
Avg Max Decline   8.44% 8.78% 6.05% 8.84% 10.03% 7.48% 7.91% 11.92% 9.10% 10.02% 7.71%
Max Decline   21.46% 32.33% 12.76% 18.14% 27.31% 16.02% 24.09% 51.98% 47.15% 31.79% 23.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline   13 18 21 16 13 17 17 18 15 15 15
Avg Max Increase   -2.04% -1.90% -4.70% -1.95% -1.71% -1.66% -1.53% -2.55% -1.97% -1.97% -1.71%
Max Increase   -5.53% -5.68% -14.85% -6.92% -7.86% -8.80% -8.33% -9.74% -7.57% -10.11% -4.98%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 10 17 6 6 8 11 7 7 4 3
2024 Contract Condition     Yes       Yes Yes Yes      
Action     No       Yes Yes Not Yet      
High 401.75 400.55 395.70 421.30 472.25 511.20 470.55 464.60 431.85 479.00    
Low 381.60 379.85 374.50 387.40 410.90 450.65 435.00 407.35 396.45 404.20    
Close/Last 395.20 397.60 389.90 408.80 460.25 463.00 441.10 421.50 421.15 455.30    

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