MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Copper(CMX) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	25	27	22	19	24	30	21	23	21	23
Exceeded High		23	22	19	16	14	23	21	16	12	13	17
Scenario Percentage		96%	88%	70%	73%	74%	96%	70%	76%	52%	62%	74%
Avg Max Increase		8.87%	11.81%	9.55%	8.98%	9.62%	8.91%	7.79%	11.71%	17.21%	15.98%	6.47%
Max Increase		25.83%	54.10%	60.00%	24.20%	19.62%	31.09%	20.77%	42.38%	51.10%	70.42%	21.95%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	15	12	13	22	19	18	21	17	17	15
Avg Max Decline		-2.57%	-2.18%	-2.16%	-2.16%	-3.05%	-2.00%	-2.54%	-3.70%	-1.93%	-2.40%	-1.46%
Max Decline		-8.58%	-9.41%	-6.90%	-15.00%	-10.53%	-5.49%	-7.01%	-11.29%	-7.96%	-10.87%	-5.75%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	9	7	7	9	8	11	13	8	11	4
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes				Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes				Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	20	17	23	25	21	14	24	22	24	22
Penetrated Low		13	15	14	18	19	13	13	16	18	16	14
Scenario Percentage		62%	75%	82%	78%	76%	62%	93%	67%	82%	67%	64%
Avg Max Decline		6.70%	8.44%	6.05%	8.51%	8.83%	7.40%	8.64%	12.97%	9.56%	9.51%	7.56%
Max Decline		11.97%	32.33%	12.76%	18.14%	23.72%	16.02%	24.09%	51.98%	47.15%	31.79%	23.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline		11	16	21	15	13	18	18	18	16	14	14
Avg Max Increase		-1.83%	-1.77%	-4.70%	-1.95%	-1.64%	-1.15%	-1.17%	-2.46%	-2.11%	-1.89%	-1.48%
Max Increase		-5.53%	-5.68%	-14.85%	-6.92%	-7.86%	-8.80%	-8.33%	-9.74%	-7.57%	-10.11%	-4.98%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	7	17	6	7	7	10	8	9	3	2
2019 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
High	285.80	281.80	298.45	298.85	301.60	293.35	275.45	280.60	267.65	270.65	269.70	273.00
Low	264.60	258.20	277.50	285.85	288.50	263.45	260.35	261.95	249.90	248.20	251.50	261.30
Close/Last	264.60	280.95	296.20	295.15	292.60	264.40	272.05	267.60	255.15	257.85	263.80	264.20