MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	25	28	23	19	23	30	21	22	20	22
Exceeded High		23	22	20	17	14	22	21	16	11	12	16
Scenario Percentage		96%	88%	71%	74%	74%	96%	70%	76%	50%	60%	73%
Avg Max Increase		10.17%	13.07%	9.79%	8.56%	9.62%	9.18%	7.79%	11.71%	18.24%	16.58%	6.34%
Max Increase		36.44%	54.10%	60.00%	24.20%	19.62%	31.09%	20.77%	42.38%	51.10%	70.42%	21.95%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	15	12	13	22	19	18	21	18	16	14
Avg Max Decline		-2.65%	-2.28%	-2.35%	-2.23%	-3.05%	-1.93%	-2.54%	-3.70%	-1.88%	-2.49%	-1.46%
Max Decline		-8.58%	-9.41%	-6.90%	-15.00%	-10.53%	-5.49%	-7.01%	-11.29%	-7.96%	-10.87%	-5.75%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	8	7	7	9	8	11	13	9	10	4
2018 Contract Condition					Yes					Yes		Yes
Action					Yes					No		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	20	16	22	25	22	14	24	23	25	23
Penetrated Low		13	15	13	17	19	14	13	16	19	17	15
Scenario Percentage		62%	75%	81%	77%	76%	64%	93%	67%	83%	68%	65%
Avg Max Decline		6.70%	8.44%	5.69%	8.36%	9.71%	8.33%	10.53%	14.22%	9.97%	9.91%	7.63%
Max Decline		11.97%	32.33%	12.76%	18.14%	23.72%	20.37%	31.84%	51.98%	47.15%	31.79%	23.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline		11	16	20	15	14	19	19	19	17	14	14
Avg Max Increase		-1.83%	-1.77%	-4.89%	-2.05%	-2.02%	-1.36%	-1.24%	-2.16%	-1.99%	-2.04%	-1.47%
Max Increase		-5.53%	-5.68%	-14.85%	-6.92%	-8.56%	-8.80%	-8.33%	-9.74%	-7.57%	-10.11%	-4.98%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	7	17	7	7	9	10	8	9	3	3
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes
High	336.15	335.20	333.55	324.60	325.70	319.50	335.50	299.45	285.00	287.10	286.65	284.60
Low	297.60	317.50	309.80	300.00	303.30	305.70	297.50	269.70	257.45	258.00	264.60	264.25
Close/Last	335.05	326.10	318.85	308.55	311.90	311.05	298.80	285.30	267.10	280.50	265.90	277.75