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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 45 45 45
Closed Higher   24 26 28 22 20 22 30 21 20 20 21
Exceeded High   23 23 21 17 15 21 20 15 10 13 18
Scenario Percentage   96% 88% 75% 77% 75% 95% 67% 71% 50% 65% 86%
Avg Max Increase   10.95% 13.22% 9.47% 9.11% 11.00% 9.63% 7.72% 12.14% 17.66% 17.19% 6.97%
Max Increase   36.44% 54.10% 60.00% 24.20% 30.26% 31.09% 20.77% 42.38% 51.10% 70.42% 21.95%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 14 12 14 23 19 18 21 17 16 17
Avg Max Decline   -2.54% -2.10% -2.25% -2.35% -2.84% -1.77% -2.61% -3.51% -1.50% -2.34% -1.63%
Max Decline   -8.58% -9.41% -6.90% -15.00% -10.53% -5.49% -7.01% -11.29% -7.96% -10.87% -5.75%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 8 7 5 9 7 11 12 7 9 4
2015 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes         Yes    
Action     Yes Yes Yes         No    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 45 45 45
Closed Lower   20 18 15 22 23 22 13 23 25 24 24
Penetrated Low   12 13 12 17 18 13 12 16 21 17 14
Scenario Percentage   60% 72% 80% 77% 78% 59% 92% 70% 84% 71% 58%
Avg Max Decline   6.59% 8.73% 5.57% 8.83% 9.45% 7.90% 10.60% 14.86% 9.54% 10.12% 7.91%
Max Decline   11.97% 32.33% 12.76% 18.14% 23.72% 20.37% 31.84% 51.98% 47.15% 31.79% 23.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline   10 16 21 15 13 19 19 19 17 16 15
Avg Max Increase   -1.80% -1.78% -5.17% -1.91% -1.53% -1.45% -1.36% -1.92% -2.16% -1.90% -1.44%
Max Increase   -5.53% -5.68% -14.85% -6.92% -8.56% -8.80% -8.33% -9.74% -7.57% -10.11% -4.98%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 7 18 7 7 9 10 7 10 3 3
2015 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes
Action   No       Yes Yes Yes No   Yes Not Yet
High 294.50 282.25 270.50 290.20 289.10 295.45 277.25 265.35 243.55 249.30 243.75 236.20
Low 280.15 244.30 249.25 256.45 267.90 274.00 257.25 234.90 220.25 222.55 227.30 200.15
Close/Last 282.95 249.05 268.65 274.05 288.85 274.25 262.25 237.65 233.75 234.10 231.75 204.45

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