MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	26	27	22	20	22	31	21	19	20	21
Exceeded High		23	23	20	16	15	21	20	15	10	13	18
Scenario Percentage		96%	88%	74%	73%	75%	95%	65%	71%	53%	65%	86%
Avg Max Increase		10.95%	13.03%	9.56%	9.54%	11.00%	9.63%	7.72%	12.14%	17.66%	17.19%	6.97%
Max Increase		36.44%	54.10%	60.00%	24.20%	30.26%	31.09%	20.77%	42.38%	51.10%	70.42%	21.95%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	14	12	14	23	19	18	21	17	16	17
Avg Max Decline		-2.54%	-2.04%	-2.25%	-2.49%	-2.84%	-1.77%	-2.61%	-3.51%	-1.50%	-2.34%	-1.63%
Max Decline		-8.58%	-9.41%	-6.90%	-15.00%	-10.53%	-5.49%	-7.01%	-11.29%	-7.96%	-10.87%	-5.75%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	8	6	6	9	7	11	12	7	9	4
2014 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action						Yes	Yes	No			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	18	16	22	23	22	12	23	26	24	24
Penetrated Low		12	13	13	17	18	13	11	17	22	17	15
Scenario Percentage		60%	72%	81%	77%	78%	59%	92%	74%	85%	71%	63%
Avg Max Decline		6.59%	8.73%	5.79%	8.83%	9.07%	7.23%	10.89%	14.93%	9.87%	9.86%	7.67%
Max Decline		11.97%	32.33%	12.76%	18.14%	23.72%	20.37%	31.84%	51.98%	47.15%	31.79%	23.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline		10	16	21	15	12	19	19	19	17	15	15
Avg Max Increase		-1.80%	-1.78%	-5.12%	-1.91%	-1.59%	-1.66%	-1.25%	-1.94%	-2.10%	-1.99%	-1.25%
Max Increase		-5.53%	-5.68%	-14.85%	-6.92%	-8.56%	-8.80%	-8.33%	-9.74%	-7.57%	-10.11%	-4.98%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	7	17	7	7	11	10	8	9	3	3
2014 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No	No				Yes	Yes		Yes
High	336.90	335.70	326.70	321.40	309.10	316.50	320.50	329.45	326.20	321.20	311.40	307.75
Low	316.65	319.25	317.00	288.45	296.60	299.75	300.95	317.55	310.50	300.60	295.15	285.65
Close/Last	335.75	319.25	317.25	303.15	302.05	310.75	320.10	324.00	316.05	300.75	304.70	286.00