MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	45	45	45
Closed Higher		25	27	28	23	20	23	30	22	20	20	23
Exceeded High		24	24	21	17	16	22	20	17	11	14	18
Scenario Percentage		96%	89%	75%	74%	80%	96%	67%	77%	55%	70%	78%
Avg Max Increase		11.06%	12.71%	9.52%	9.61%	10.85%	10.15%	7.95%	11.49%	16.96%	16.23%	6.53%
Max Increase		36.44%	54.10%	60.00%	24.20%	30.26%	31.09%	20.77%	42.38%	51.10%	70.42%	21.95%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	14	13	14	23	20	17	21	18	15	14
Avg Max Decline		-2.69%	-2.10%	-2.17%	-2.46%	-2.80%	-1.91%	-2.64%	-3.42%	-1.72%	-2.14%	-1.44%
Max Decline		-8.58%	-9.41%	-6.90%	-15.00%	-10.53%	-5.49%	-7.01%	-11.29%	-7.96%	-10.87%	-5.75%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	7	6	6	10	8	11	12	8	9	4
2012 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes				Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	No				Yes		Yes	No		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	17	15	21	23	21	13	22	25	24	22
Penetrated Low		11	11	13	17	18	13	11	16	21	16	14
Scenario Percentage		58%	65%	87%	81%	78%	62%	85%	73%	84%	67%	64%
Avg Max Decline		6.31%	8.27%	5.92%	8.52%	9.07%	7.23%	10.89%	15.45%	10.10%	10.13%	8.06%
Max Decline		11.97%	32.33%	12.76%	18.14%	23.72%	20.37%	31.84%	51.98%	47.15%	31.79%	23.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline		9	15	22	14	12	19	19	20	17	14	15
Avg Max Increase		-1.75%	-1.94%	-4.90%	-1.51%	-1.59%	-1.66%	-1.25%	-1.96%	-2.04%	-2.06%	-1.14%
Max Increase		-5.53%	-5.68%	-14.85%	-6.76%	-8.56%	-8.80%	-8.33%	-9.74%	-7.57%	-10.11%	-4.98%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	7	16	6	7	11	10	8	8	4	3
2012 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes
High	364.20	393.10	402.00	395.75	397.20	385.30	352.25	356.25	351.70	383.95	382.25	362.95
Low	329.50	343.10	373.35	375.00	361.15	336.05	326.25	334.25	330.10	343.25	348.20	340.30
Close/Last	346.30	382.55	390.65	385.20	382.70	338.25	350.65	342.90	345.70	375.80	351.75	362.95