MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	45	45	45
Closed Higher	25	26	29	24	21	22	30	22	21	21	21
Exceeded High	23	25	22	17	17	21	20	17	13	15	18
Scenario Percentage	92%	96%	76%	71%	81%	95%	67%	77%	62%	71%	86%
Avg Max Increase	12.38%	13.76%	10.11%	9.61%	10.57%	10.40%	8.93%	13.15%	17.05%	15.23%	6.86%
Max Increase	36.44%	54.10%	60.00%	24.20%	30.26%	31.09%	21.53%	42.38%	51.10%	70.42%	21.95%
Avg Days To Max Increase	18	14	13	14	21	22	19	22	18	16	16
Avg Max Decline	-2.75%	-2.24%	-2.05%	-2.46%	-2.56%	-2.01%	-2.59%	-3.50%	-1.88%	-2.12%	-1.58%
Max Decline	-8.58%	-9.41%	-6.90%	-15.00%	-10.53%	-5.49%	-7.01%	-11.29%	-7.96%	-10.87%	-5.75%
Avg Days to Max Decline	9	8	6	6	8	9	11	12	7	7	4
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	45	45	45
Closed Lower	19	18	14	20	22	22	13	22	24	23	24
Penetrated Low	10	12	12	14	17	14	11	15	20	15	18
Scenario Percentage	53%	67%	86%	70%	77%	64%	85%	68%	83%	65%	75%
Avg Max Decline	6.25%	8.68%	4.95%	7.45%	9.07%	6.90%	12.96%	14.57%	10.35%	10.60%	18.28%
Max Decline	11.97%	32.33%	12.22%	13.82%	23.72%	20.37%	31.84%	51.98%	47.15%	31.79%	63.42%
Avg Days To Max Decline	9	15	22	15	13	18	21	21	18	15	15
Avg Max Increase	-1.67%	-1.87%	-4.63%	-1.69%	-1.96%	-1.55%	-1.06%	-2.09%	-2.09%	-2.10%	-2.72%
Max Increase	-5.53%	-5.68%	-14.85%	-6.76%	-8.56%	-8.80%	-8.33%	-9.74%	-7.57%	-10.11%	-13.23%
Avg Days to Max Increase	8	7	17	6	8	10	11	8	8	4	6
2009 Contract Condition									Yes
Action									Yes
High	165.10	168.50	190.00	224.85	221.10	246.80	263.65	298.95	298.10	306.90	319.55
Low	141.75	145.00	154.00	183.60	198.00	214.95	215.80	264.25	266.25	264.00	289.50
Close/Last	151.00	156.75	187.35	204.20	220.40	228.05	262.90	282.65	281.90	295.55	314.85