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ScenarioSM Study for September Copper(CMX) as of Nov 09, 2020 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 19 | 24 | 25 | 23 | 24 | 27 | 22 | 20 | 24 | 29 | 19 | |
Exceeded High | 14 | 20 | 23 | 22 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 23 | 18 | 14 | |
Scenario Percentage | 74% | 83% | 92% | 96% | 83% | 63% | 73% | 80% | 96% | 62% | 74% | |
Avg Max Increase | 9.81% | 10.27% | 9.01% | 9.07% | 10.68% | 12.40% | 10.39% | 11.87% | 8.56% | 8.78% | 7.54% | |
Max Increase | 21.17% | 40.41% | 43.40% | 25.81% | 43.92% | 62.57% | 25.75% | 22.76% | 30.55% | 24.78% | 17.05% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 23 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 21 | 17 | 18 | 18 | |
Avg Max Decline | -2.16% | -2.15% | -1.59% | -2.61% | -2.33% | -2.53% | -2.39% | -2.99% | -2.23% | -3.00% | -2.00% | |
Max Decline | -5.37% | -9.39% | -8.60% | -9.20% | -10.00% | -7.15% | -15.57% | -11.24% | -8.78% | -7.11% | -5.83% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 17 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 5 | |
2020 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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