MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Copper(CMX) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		18	23	24	23	24	28	21	19	24	29	19
Exceeded High		13	19	22	22	21	18	15	15	23	18	13
Scenario Percentage		72%	83%	92%	96%	88%	64%	71%	79%	96%	62%	68%
Avg Max Increase		9.95%	10.39%	9.29%	9.07%	10.45%	11.74%	9.99%	11.14%	8.46%	8.53%	7.69%
Max Increase		21.17%	40.41%	43.40%	25.81%	43.92%	62.57%	25.75%	21.26%	30.55%	24.78%	15.61%
Avg Days To Max Increase		23	18	15	14	15	14	12	21	17	17	17
Avg Max Decline		-2.28%	-2.18%	-1.60%	-2.61%	-2.40%	-2.45%	-2.39%	-3.19%	-2.31%	-2.93%	-1.90%
Max Decline		-5.37%	-9.39%	-8.60%	-9.20%	-10.00%	-7.15%	-15.57%	-11.24%	-8.78%	-7.11%	-5.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline		16	9	8	8	10	7	7	10	7	10	5
2019 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		27	22	21	21	21	17	23	26	21	15	26
Penetrated Low		19	18	13	13	15	14	18	20	14	14	15
Scenario Percentage		70%	82%	62%	62%	71%	82%	78%	77%	67%	93%	58%
Avg Max Decline		8.60%	9.05%	7.01%	7.02%	8.61%	6.53%	8.84%	8.91%	8.01%	7.73%	6.42%
Max Decline		30.54%	22.91%	17.27%	12.18%	31.92%	12.82%	18.69%	25.51%	15.53%	16.70%	22.35%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	17	16	11	17	20	15	13	20	14	17
Avg Max Increase		-1.59%	-1.65%	-0.49%	-1.79%	-1.78%	-4.84%	-1.92%	-1.87%	-3.22%	-1.46%	-1.53%
Max Increase		-6.68%	-7.74%	-2.97%	-5.92%	-6.10%	-15.55%	-7.17%	-8.56%	-13.83%	-8.25%	-6.95%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	9	11	9	7	17	8	7	14	9	5
2019 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
High	290.20	290.40	285.50	285.95	281.50	298.05	298.55	300.80	292.20	275.10	280.30	266.80
Low	264.30	270.45	269.15	263.70	256.70	276.60	285.25	287.40	263.05	259.95	261.20	249.10
Close/Last	284.45	270.70	279.60	264.45	280.55	295.85	294.70	291.35	264.10	271.35	266.60	253.30