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ScenarioSM Study for September Copper(CMX) as of Oct 20, 2019 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 18 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 24 | 28 | 21 | 19 | 24 | 29 | 19 | |
Exceeded High | 13 | 19 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 23 | 18 | 13 | |
Scenario Percentage | 72% | 83% | 92% | 96% | 88% | 64% | 71% | 79% | 96% | 62% | 68% | |
Avg Max Increase | 9.95% | 10.39% | 9.29% | 9.07% | 10.45% | 11.74% | 9.99% | 11.14% | 8.46% | 8.53% | 7.69% | |
Max Increase | 21.17% | 40.41% | 43.40% | 25.81% | 43.92% | 62.57% | 25.75% | 21.26% | 30.55% | 24.78% | 15.61% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 23 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 21 | 17 | 17 | 17 | |
Avg Max Decline | -2.28% | -2.18% | -1.60% | -2.61% | -2.40% | -2.45% | -2.39% | -3.19% | -2.31% | -2.93% | -1.90% | |
Max Decline | -5.37% | -9.39% | -8.60% | -9.20% | -10.00% | -7.15% | -15.57% | -11.24% | -8.78% | -7.11% | -5.83% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 16 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 5 | |
2019 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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