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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Copper(CMX) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   18 23 24 23 24 28 21 19 24 29 19
Exceeded High   13 19 22 22 21 18 15 15 23 18 13
Scenario Percentage   72% 83% 92% 96% 88% 64% 71% 79% 96% 62% 68%
Avg Max Increase   9.95% 10.39% 9.29% 9.07% 10.45% 11.74% 9.99% 11.14% 8.46% 8.53% 7.69%
Max Increase   21.17% 40.41% 43.40% 25.81% 43.92% 62.57% 25.75% 21.26% 30.55% 24.78% 15.61%
Avg Days To Max Increase   23 18 15 14 15 14 12 21 17 17 17
Avg Max Decline   -2.28% -2.18% -1.60% -2.61% -2.40% -2.45% -2.39% -3.19% -2.31% -2.93% -1.90%
Max Decline   -5.37% -9.39% -8.60% -9.20% -10.00% -7.15% -15.57% -11.24% -8.78% -7.11% -5.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline   16 9 8 8 10 7 7 10 7 10 5
2019 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes Yes       Yes    
Action     Yes   Yes Yes       Yes    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   27 22 21 21 21 17 23 26 21 15 26
Penetrated Low   19 18 13 13 15 14 18 20 14 14 15
Scenario Percentage   70% 82% 62% 62% 71% 82% 78% 77% 67% 93% 58%
Avg Max Decline   8.60% 9.05% 7.01% 7.02% 8.61% 6.53% 8.84% 8.91% 8.01% 7.73% 6.42%
Max Decline   30.54% 22.91% 17.27% 12.18% 31.92% 12.82% 18.69% 25.51% 15.53% 16.70% 22.35%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 17 16 11 17 20 15 13 20 14 17
Avg Max Increase   -1.59% -1.65% -0.49% -1.79% -1.78% -4.84% -1.92% -1.87% -3.22% -1.46% -1.53%
Max Increase   -6.68% -7.74% -2.97% -5.92% -6.10% -15.55% -7.17% -8.56% -13.83% -8.25% -6.95%
Avg Days to Max Increase   4 9 11 9 7 17 8 7 14 9 5
2019 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes     Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes
Action   Yes   Yes     Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes
High 290.20 290.40 285.50 285.95 281.50 298.05 298.55 300.80 292.20 275.10 280.30 266.80
Low 264.30 270.45 269.15 263.70 256.70 276.60 285.25 287.40 263.05 259.95 261.20 249.10
Close/Last 284.45 270.70 279.60 264.45 280.55 295.85 294.70 291.35 264.10 271.35 266.60 253.30

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