MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		17	22	26	25	26	29	21	20	22	30	21
Exceeded High		13	19	25	24	23	19	15	16	21	19	13
Scenario Percentage		76%	86%	96%	96%	88%	66%	71%	80%	95%	63%	62%
Avg Max Increase		9.73%	10.45%	11.14%	11.56%	11.53%	11.58%	10.68%	12.67%	9.28%	8.38%	7.57%
Max Increase		21.17%	40.41%	43.40%	38.84%	43.92%	62.57%	25.75%	35.70%	30.55%	24.78%	15.61%
Avg Days To Max Increase		22	18	16	15	13	13	13	21	16	17	17
Avg Max Decline		-2.06%	-2.19%	-1.45%	-2.46%	-2.28%	-2.57%	-2.62%	-2.98%	-2.10%	-2.72%	-1.91%
Max Decline		-5.37%	-9.39%	-7.91%	-9.20%	-10.00%	-7.15%	-15.57%	-11.24%	-8.78%	-7.11%	-5.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline		13	9	8	8	8	6	6	9	6	9	5
2014 Contract Condition				Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes					Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		28	23	19	19	19	16	23	25	23	14	24
Penetrated Low		20	17	12	12	13	13	18	20	14	13	15
Scenario Percentage		71%	74%	63%	63%	68%	81%	78%	80%	61%	93%	63%
Avg Max Decline		8.24%	9.12%	6.66%	6.93%	8.89%	6.34%	9.20%	9.17%	8.34%	9.63%	7.60%
Max Decline		30.54%	22.91%	17.27%	12.18%	31.92%	12.82%	18.69%	25.51%	24.31%	33.03%	22.35%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	17	16	9	16	21	16	14	21	13	18
Avg Max Increase		-1.32%	-1.38%	-0.45%	-1.75%	-1.77%	-5.29%	-1.86%	-1.88%	-3.47%	-1.49%	-1.10%
Max Increase		-6.68%	-7.74%	-2.97%	-5.92%	-6.10%	-15.55%	-7.17%	-10.04%	-13.83%	-8.25%	-6.95%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	9	11	9	6	18	9	7	17	9	5
2014 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	No	No				Yes
High	337.80	336.20	331.90	337.45	338.05	328.35	322.20	309.90	317.80	321.05	329.45	325.55
Low	323.30	326.45	317.05	317.00	319.10	316.75	287.80	296.45	300.00	301.00	316.75	308.25
Close/Last	335.50	331.90	321.10	336.60	319.35	317.65	302.65	302.35	311.55	320.35	323.10	313.50