MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		18	23	26	26	26	30	22	20	22	30	22
Exceeded High		14	20	25	25	23	20	16	16	21	20	14
Scenario Percentage		78%	87%	96%	96%	88%	67%	73%	80%	95%	67%	64%
Avg Max Increase		9.95%	10.57%	11.42%	11.31%	11.53%	11.48%	10.68%	13.13%	10.12%	8.68%	7.26%
Max Increase		21.17%	40.41%	43.40%	38.84%	43.92%	62.57%	25.75%	35.70%	30.55%	24.78%	15.61%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	19	17	16	13	14	13	22	17	16	17
Avg Max Decline		-1.88%	-1.99%	-1.42%	-2.62%	-2.28%	-2.49%	-2.56%	-2.88%	-2.19%	-2.65%	-1.86%
Max Decline		-5.37%	-9.39%	-7.91%	-9.20%	-10.00%	-7.15%	-15.57%	-11.24%	-8.78%	-7.11%	-5.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	9	9	9	8	6	7	10	6	9	5
2013 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes				No		Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		27	22	19	18	19	15	22	25	23	14	23
Penetrated Low		19	16	12	11	12	13	18	20	14	13	14
Scenario Percentage		70%	73%	63%	61%	63%	87%	82%	80%	61%	93%	61%
Avg Max Decline		8.43%	9.61%	6.66%	6.66%	8.85%	6.34%	9.20%	9.17%	8.34%	9.63%	7.90%
Max Decline		30.54%	22.91%	17.27%	12.18%	31.92%	12.82%	18.69%	25.51%	24.31%	33.03%	22.35%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	18	16	9	15	21	16	14	21	13	17
Avg Max Increase		-1.39%	-1.49%	-0.45%	-1.66%	-1.80%	-5.29%	-1.86%	-1.88%	-3.47%	-1.49%	-1.03%
Max Increase		-6.68%	-7.74%	-2.97%	-5.92%	-6.10%	-15.55%	-7.17%	-10.04%	-13.83%	-8.25%	-6.95%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	10	11	8	7	18	9	7	17	9	4
2013 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes		No
High	384.30	381.95	367.70	374.50	380.35	382.00	359.45	348.65	343.05	341.25	323.40	338.85
Low	349.20	352.00	345.00	356.50	364.10	357.25	342.50	308.40	306.90	298.55	302.50	310.20
Close/Last	377.30	354.60	367.40	368.00	376.60	357.65	343.90	320.10	330.75	305.75	311.85	322.50