MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	19	20	25	26	26	31	23	21	22	29	22
Exceeded High	16	17	23	24	24	21	16	18	20	19	15
Scenario Percentage	84%	85%	92%	92%	92%	68%	70%	86%	91%	66%	68%
Avg Max Increase	7.64%	10.62%	13.09%	13.15%	13.04%	12.12%	10.68%	12.12%	10.39%	9.57%	7.14%
Max Increase	21.17%	40.41%	43.40%	38.84%	43.92%	62.57%	25.75%	35.70%	30.55%	24.78%	17.05%
Avg Days To Max Increase	18	18	19	17	13	14	13	20	19	18	18
Avg Max Decline	-2.62%	-2.21%	-1.43%	-2.72%	-2.41%	-2.36%	-2.56%	-2.62%	-2.36%	-2.65%	-1.81%
Max Decline	-13.50%	-9.39%	-7.91%	-9.20%	-10.00%	-7.15%	-15.57%	-11.24%	-8.78%	-7.11%	-5.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline	11	9	8	9	8	5	7	8	8	9	5
2009 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	26	25	20	18	19	14	21	24	23	15	23
Penetrated Low	18	19	14	10	12	12	15	19	15	13	19
Scenario Percentage	69%	76%	70%	56%	63%	86%	71%	79%	65%	87%	83%
Avg Max Decline	8.75%	8.86%	6.16%	6.60%	8.88%	5.90%	8.01%	9.11%	8.02%	11.50%	22.19%
Max Decline	30.54%	22.91%	17.27%	12.18%	31.92%	15.35%	15.29%	25.51%	24.31%	33.03%	67.73%
Avg Days To Max Decline	16	17	16	9	16	21	16	14	20	15	17
Avg Max Increase	-1.41%	-1.72%	-0.88%	-1.58%	-1.92%	-4.73%	-1.63%	-2.27%	-3.26%	-1.27%	-3.45%
Max Increase	-6.68%	-7.74%	-4.38%	-5.92%	-6.10%	-15.55%	-6.40%	-10.04%	-13.83%	-8.25%	-15.02%
Avg Days to Max Increase	3	9	10	8	6	17	9	8	16	9	-27
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	No
High	291.30	198.95	166.20	163.25	165.85	188.90	224.15	220.95	246.30	263.20	296.60
Low	169.00	160.00	129.55	142.70	144.00	153.40	182.00	197.90	212.35	214.20	262.45
Close/Last	186.50	168.05	143.20	150.15	155.75	186.35	204.40	220.35	227.20	262.35	280.80