MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	20	22	26	26	26	32	23	21	21	30	22
Exceeded High	17	19	24	24	24	22	15	17	19	19	16
Scenario Percentage	85%	86%	92%	92%	92%	69%	65%	81%	90%	63%	73%
Avg Max Increase	7.35%	9.95%	13.07%	12.13%	11.75%	10.94%	9.49%	11.69%	10.18%	10.32%	8.01%
Max Increase	21.17%	40.41%	43.40%	38.84%	41.33%	62.57%	25.75%	35.70%	22.29%	32.22%	26.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase	19	18	19	18	13	14	14	20	19	17	17
Avg Max Decline	-2.48%	-2.05%	-1.38%	-2.42%	-2.05%	-2.17%	-2.17%	-2.56%	-2.11%	-2.66%	-1.65%
Max Decline	-13.50%	-9.39%	-7.91%	-9.20%	-8.43%	-7.15%	-15.57%	-11.24%	-8.78%	-7.11%	-5.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline	12	8	7	9	8	5	6	7	8	9	5
2007 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	24	23	19	18	19	13	21	24	24	14	23
Penetrated Low	16	17	14	10	12	12	15	19	15	12	18
Scenario Percentage	67%	74%	74%	56%	63%	92%	71%	79%	62%	86%	78%
Avg Max Decline	6.92%	8.00%	6.16%	6.60%	8.88%	5.90%	8.01%	9.06%	8.02%	11.07%	22.74%
Max Decline	17.60%	22.61%	17.27%	12.18%	31.92%	15.35%	15.29%	25.51%	24.31%	33.03%	67.73%
Avg Days To Max Decline	15	17	16	9	16	21	16	14	20	15	17
Avg Max Increase	-1.31%	-2.08%	-0.88%	-1.58%	-1.92%	-4.73%	-1.63%	-2.22%	-3.26%	-1.37%	-3.62%
Max Increase	-4.33%	-7.74%	-4.38%	-5.92%	-6.10%	-15.55%	-6.40%	-10.04%	-13.83%	-8.25%	-15.02%
Avg Days to Max Increase	3	10	10	8	6	17	9	8	16	10	-29
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes			Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				No			Not Yet
High	334.25	327.65	323.70	273.00	286.45	312.75	367.00	377.90	351.70	374.80	364.90
Low	304.95	301.50	285.00	247.30	238.75	263.15	309.75	316.15	321.55	343.75	304.10
Close/Last	322.50	319.55	288.60	258.70	274.90	311.70	353.55	338.90	345.05	364.85	341.10