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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Copper(CMX) as of Jul 08, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   20 22 19 25 25 24 23 26 24 20 23
Exceeded High   18 12 15 21 23 22 20 15 19 16 20
Scenario Percentage   90% 55% 79% 84% 92% 92% 87% 58% 79% 80% 87%
Avg Max Increase   7.73% 14.18% 10.67% 10.07% 9.33% 9.26% 10.69% 14.69% 10.47% 11.27% 6.69%
Max Increase   25.67% 28.89% 19.96% 39.30% 42.72% 27.18% 44.71% 64.86% 25.45% 22.92% 13.57%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 18 22 18 14 15 15 14 14 18 16
Avg Max Decline   -2.06% -1.88% -2.24% -2.63% -1.94% -3.33% -2.36% -3.00% -2.33% -3.28% -1.41%
Max Decline   -7.15% -7.34% -5.52% -9.72% -8.78% -10.04% -10.51% -7.75% -16.01% -12.21% -5.47%
Avg Days to Max Decline   14 7 14 11 9 8 11 7 6 8 3
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes
Action   Yes No       Yes Yes No   Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   25 23 26 20 20 21 22 19 21 25 22
Penetrated Low   15 17 17 16 13 12 15 13 17 17 12
Scenario Percentage   60% 74% 65% 80% 65% 57% 68% 68% 81% 68% 55%
Avg Max Decline   12.04% 8.52% 8.48% 9.49% 7.10% 9.24% 9.21% 6.43% 9.15% 10.95% 6.37%
Max Decline   49.51% 45.42% 29.97% 22.26% 16.97% 21.82% 32.42% 12.83% 18.89% 26.78% 15.20%
Avg Days To Max Decline   19 16 16 16 16 13 18 19 15 14 13
Avg Max Increase   -1.73% -1.87% -1.80% -2.14% -0.64% -2.04% -2.11% -4.87% -2.41% -1.74% -0.63%
Max Increase   -7.90% -5.53% -6.74% -8.61% -4.01% -5.83% -6.44% -15.97% -8.32% -8.17% -6.59%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 9 5 10 9 10 10 16 9 5 3
2025 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes       Yes    
Action       Yes Yes Yes       No    
High 467.10 439.60 480.40 473.50 457.25 437.55 452.25 491.65 541.50 518.00 489.00 509.95
Low 415.40 406.25 413.25 439.85 412.65 407.45 407.25 426.60 456.60 407.40 447.75 470.90
Close/Last 429.45 430.25 460.50 443.65 419.15 409.20 435.75 459.15 508.10 460.90 467.75 503.00

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