MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	22	17	23	26	26	26	32	22	19	22
Exceeded High		19	14	13	20	26	25	24	21	16	16	19
Scenario Percentage		86%	64%	76%	87%	100%	96%	92%	66%	73%	84%	86%
Avg Max Increase		7.82%	12.06%	10.72%	10.60%	11.38%	11.86%	11.80%	12.11%	11.02%	11.08%	6.64%
Max Increase		25.67%	28.89%	19.96%	39.30%	44.19%	41.30%	44.71%	64.86%	25.45%	22.91%	13.57%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	20	21	19	17	17	14	15	14	18	16
Avg Max Decline		-1.67%	-1.58%	-2.06%	-2.55%	-1.75%	-3.11%	-2.42%	-2.83%	-2.85%	-3.20%	-1.29%
Max Decline		-8.85%	-7.34%	-5.52%	-9.72%	-8.27%	-10.04%	-10.51%	-7.75%	-16.01%	-12.21%	-5.47%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	9	11	9	8	9	9	7	6	9	3
2013 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes				Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	23	28	22	19	19	19	13	23	26	23
Penetrated Low		15	19	20	16	13	11	12	11	19	18	11
Scenario Percentage		68%	83%	71%	73%	68%	58%	63%	85%	83%	69%	48%
Avg Max Decline		14.05%	9.13%	8.52%	9.81%	6.52%	7.09%	9.08%	5.97%	9.32%	10.19%	5.39%
Max Decline		49.51%	45.42%	29.97%	22.26%	16.97%	12.34%	32.42%	12.83%	18.89%	26.78%	15.23%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	18	15	17	16	9	15	19	16	13	10
Avg Max Increase		-1.36%	-1.63%	-1.62%	-1.71%	-0.69%	-1.67%	-2.02%	-5.42%	-2.69%	-1.50%	0.10%
Max Increase		-7.90%	-4.58%	-6.74%	-8.61%	-4.01%	-5.83%	-6.44%	-15.97%	-11.15%	-7.91%	-1.99%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	7	3	9	10	7	8	17	11	7	4
2013 Contract Condition				Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes		Not Yet
High	356.60	351.55	384.40	383.30	366.90	373.75	379.65	381.50	359.20	347.15	341.80	339.80
Low	338.00	332.45	348.80	351.55	344.00	354.75	362.85	354.95	340.70	306.85	304.25	298.35
Close/Last	344.90	347.55	377.20	354.10	366.70	367.20	375.65	356.25	342.20	318.75	329.25	305.05