MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	21	23	18	20	25	26	26	33	23	21	23
Exceeded High	18	16	15	17	24	24	25	22	16	19	18
Scenario Percentage	86%	70%	83%	85%	96%	92%	96%	67%	70%	90%	78%
Avg Max Increase	9.00%	12.39%	8.23%	10.63%	12.96%	13.93%	13.48%	12.71%	11.02%	10.10%	7.96%
Max Increase	25.67%	28.89%	19.96%	39.30%	44.19%	41.30%	46.81%	64.86%	25.45%	22.91%	23.93%
Avg Days To Max Increase	16	18	18	18	18	19	14	15	14	17	17
Avg Max Decline	-1.56%	-1.85%	-2.75%	-2.77%	-1.79%	-3.25%	-2.51%	-2.70%	-2.85%	-2.97%	-1.54%
Max Decline	-8.85%	-7.34%	-13.92%	-9.72%	-8.27%	-10.04%	-10.51%	-7.75%	-16.01%	-12.21%	-5.47%
Avg Days to Max Decline	10	9	10	9	8	9	9	7	6	8	3
2009 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action						Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	23	22	27	25	20	19	19	12	22	24	22
Penetrated Low	14	18	19	19	15	10	12	10	16	17	15
Scenario Percentage	61%	82%	70%	76%	75%	53%	63%	83%	73%	71%	68%
Avg Max Decline	13.11%	9.44%	8.81%	9.26%	6.09%	7.07%	9.14%	5.80%	8.28%	10.08%	18.23%
Max Decline	49.51%	45.42%	29.97%	22.26%	16.97%	12.34%	32.42%	19.20%	16.99%	26.78%	68.01%
Avg Days To Max Decline	21	18	15	16	16	9	15	20	16	14	14
Avg Max Increase	-1.53%	-1.73%	-1.64%	-1.92%	-1.09%	-1.59%	-2.09%	-4.70%	-2.61%	-2.05%	-3.98%
Max Increase	-7.90%	-4.58%	-6.74%	-8.61%	-4.01%	-5.83%	-6.44%	-15.97%	-11.15%	-9.43%	-14.46%
Avg Days to Max Increase	11	7	3	9	10	7	7	17	11	8	11
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
High	349.25	330.25	288.75	198.00	165.45	164.70	166.70	190.00	224.15	221.70	245.75
Low	318.85	284.10	169.00	157.75	129.90	142.00	142.90	152.40	180.75	196.70	211.15
Close/Last	334.70	289.05	185.50	167.10	142.70	149.40	154.90	185.40	204.75	219.75	225.80