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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Jul 14, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   21 31 20 23 19 24 24 24 23 26 21
Exceeded High   20 21 17 12 14 21 21 22 18 16 15
Scenario Percentage   95% 68% 85% 52% 74% 88% 88% 92% 78% 62% 71%
Avg Max Increase   8.25% 6.86% 7.50% 14.11% 11.31% 8.81% 8.23% 10.10% 11.81% 14.51% 8.26%
Max Increase   29.45% 16.91% 20.44% 34.02% 19.38% 18.05% 30.58% 27.92% 45.27% 68.90% 24.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase   19 18 18 19 23 17 15 17 16 15 14
Avg Max Decline   -1.04% -2.37% -2.38% -2.46% -2.31% -3.07% -2.55% -3.52% -2.36% -3.36% -1.23%
Max Decline   -4.42% -14.38% -7.32% -8.34% -5.67% -9.98% -9.22% -11.06% -10.75% -8.66% -5.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 12 15 7 14 10 9 8 7 10 3
2025 Contract Condition       Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes  
Action       Yes No       Yes Yes Not Yet  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   23 13 24 22 26 21 21 21 22 19 24
Penetrated Low   15 11 17 17 18 17 14 12 15 12 16
Scenario Percentage   65% 85% 71% 77% 69% 81% 67% 57% 68% 63% 67%
Avg Max Decline   7.07% 7.19% 10.95% 8.06% 8.80% 9.57% 7.49% 9.57% 7.34% 7.07% 5.87%
Max Decline   16.05% 20.64% 50.39% 46.68% 31.11% 23.48% 16.91% 21.82% 14.96% 17.76% 13.11%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 17 18 15 16 15 17 13 18 18 13
Avg Max Increase   -1.61% -1.36% -1.68% -1.55% -1.96% -2.68% -1.33% -2.04% -2.90% -3.96% -1.33%
Max Increase   -7.97% -7.59% -8.76% -4.73% -8.81% -9.98% -5.61% -6.04% -8.44% -8.88% -3.76%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 11 7 7 4 10 9 10 12 15 3
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes       Yes
Action   Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes       Not Yet
High 508.95 471.70 466.05 438.05 481.00 471.60 455.20 435.55 449.65 488.50 537.40 514.50
Low 452.65 439.45 413.65 403.90 411.45 436.70 409.80 403.95 403.85 422.80 451.85 403.00
Close/Last 465.70 444.65 427.55 428.50 459.25 441.45 416.80 405.95 432.10 454.80 503.40 456.00

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