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ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Jan 21, 2022 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr |
Tested Years | 44 | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 21 | 31 | 20 | 25 | 19 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 25 | 21 | |
Exceeded High | 20 | 23 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 18 | 16 | 14 | |
Scenario Percentage | 95% | 74% | 85% | 60% | 74% | 88% | 92% | 96% | 78% | 64% | 67% | |
Avg Max Increase | 8.08% | 7.98% | 8.27% | 12.73% | 11.31% | 10.24% | 10.17% | 10.33% | 10.73% | 13.18% | 7.79% | |
Max Increase | 29.45% | 35.14% | 25.32% | 34.02% | 19.38% | 37.37% | 41.67% | 27.92% | 45.27% | 68.90% | 24.72% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 19 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 23 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 13 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.06% | -2.14% | -2.53% | -2.12% | -2.31% | -3.17% | -2.22% | -3.22% | -2.88% | -3.79% | -1.18% | |
Max Decline | -4.42% | -14.38% | -7.32% | -8.34% | -5.67% | -9.98% | -9.22% | -11.06% | -10.75% | -8.66% | -5.67% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 5 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 3 | |
2021 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.