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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   21 31 20 25 19 25 25 24 23 25 21
Exceeded High   20 23 17 15 14 22 23 23 18 16 14
Scenario Percentage   95% 74% 85% 60% 74% 88% 92% 96% 78% 64% 67%
Avg Max Increase   8.08% 7.98% 8.27% 12.73% 11.31% 10.24% 10.17% 10.33% 10.73% 13.18% 7.79%
Max Increase   29.45% 35.14% 25.32% 34.02% 19.38% 37.37% 41.67% 27.92% 45.27% 68.90% 24.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase   19 18 16 18 23 16 16 17 16 15 13
Avg Max Decline   -1.06% -2.14% -2.53% -2.12% -2.31% -3.17% -2.22% -3.22% -2.88% -3.79% -1.18%
Max Decline   -4.42% -14.38% -7.32% -8.34% -5.67% -9.98% -9.22% -11.06% -10.75% -8.66% -5.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 11 15 7 14 8 8 8 7 11 3
2021 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action   Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   23 13 24 20 26 20 20 21 22 20 24
Penetrated Low   14 12 17 17 18 15 13 13 16 13 16
Scenario Percentage   61% 92% 71% 85% 69% 75% 65% 62% 73% 65% 67%
Avg Max Decline   6.55% 8.14% 11.38% 8.56% 8.43% 10.39% 8.03% 9.29% 8.62% 6.82% 5.99%
Max Decline   16.05% 20.64% 50.39% 46.68% 31.11% 23.48% 16.91% 21.82% 32.96% 17.76% 13.11%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 19 17 15 15 16 18 12 17 18 13
Avg Max Increase   -0.84% -1.01% -1.56% -1.65% -1.81% -2.56% -1.37% -1.98% -2.48% -4.34% -1.49%
Max Increase   -7.97% -7.59% -8.76% -4.73% -8.81% -9.98% -5.61% -6.04% -8.44% -8.96% -5.53%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 10 7 7 4 10 9 10 8 15 3
2021 Contract Condition         Yes           Yes  
Action         Yes           Not Yet  
High 250.55 276.05 301.30 308.80 312.15 320.45 350.75 364.90 374.00 437.55 422.75 455.30
Low 234.35 248.00 274.65 282.70 293.20 285.65 304.00 344.45 349.85 350.00 384.90 394.35
Close/Last 247.55 276.05 291.10 308.20 304.25 305.65 344.30 352.40 355.65 409.25 399.55 447.90

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