MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	32	20	23	17	23	24	24	24	29	21
Exceeded High		19	22	16	13	12	20	23	23	20	20	14
Scenario Percentage		95%	69%	80%	57%	71%	87%	96%	96%	83%	69%	67%
Avg Max Increase		8.14%	7.92%	8.78%	14.09%	10.77%	10.87%	10.41%	12.03%	12.66%	12.28%	7.57%
Max Increase		29.45%	35.14%	25.32%	34.02%	18.99%	37.37%	41.67%	42.84%	45.27%	68.90%	24.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	19	16	20	21	18	17	16	15	14	14
Avg Max Decline		-0.95%	-2.13%	-2.47%	-2.15%	-2.23%	-3.83%	-2.28%	-3.27%	-2.79%	-3.44%	-1.45%
Max Decline		-4.42%	-14.38%	-10.07%	-8.34%	-5.67%	-9.98%	-9.22%	-11.06%	-10.75%	-8.66%	-5.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	11	14	8	12	9	8	8	6	9	2
2017 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	No		Yes		No		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	11	23	22	27	22	21	21	21	16	24
Penetrated Low		14	10	16	19	19	16	13	11	15	12	16
Scenario Percentage		61%	91%	70%	86%	70%	73%	62%	52%	71%	75%	67%
Avg Max Decline		6.78%	8.10%	13.01%	8.77%	9.06%	10.56%	8.09%	8.21%	8.78%	6.62%	5.67%
Max Decline		16.44%	20.64%	50.39%	46.68%	31.11%	23.48%	16.91%	12.64%	32.96%	17.76%	13.11%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	22	20	17	14	17	19	10	16	17	12
Avg Max Increase		-1.29%	-1.24%	-1.37%	-1.67%	-1.64%	-2.43%	-1.42%	-1.71%	-2.52%	-4.54%	-1.46%
Max Increase		-7.97%	-7.59%	-8.76%	-4.73%	-8.81%	-9.98%	-5.61%	-6.04%	-8.44%	-8.96%	-5.53%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	12	7	8	3	10	10	8	8	15	3
2017 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes		No		No		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	228.40	221.65	229.05	227.05	223.35	222.85	275.50	271.90	274.75	283.60	276.85	269.50
Low	207.30	205.00	214.35	208.65	207.90	210.45	222.00	245.60	248.00	262.60	255.85	249.40
Close/Last	211.95	221.65	224.50	209.35	222.60	222.05	263.95	251.20	273.85	271.40	265.25	259.65