MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		19	33	21	21	17	22	24	25	25	30	20
Exceeded High		18	22	16	12	12	20	23	24	21	21	13
Scenario Percentage		95%	67%	76%	57%	71%	91%	96%	96%	84%	70%	65%
Avg Max Increase		8.40%	7.92%	8.78%	13.28%	10.77%	10.87%	10.62%	12.49%	12.79%	11.83%	7.40%
Max Increase		29.45%	35.14%	25.32%	34.02%	18.99%	37.37%	41.67%	42.84%	45.27%	68.90%	24.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	19	16	19	21	18	16	16	14	13	12
Avg Max Decline		-0.82%	-2.13%	-2.47%	-1.87%	-2.23%	-3.83%	-2.03%	-3.18%	-2.51%	-3.31%	-1.29%
Max Decline		-4.42%	-14.38%	-10.07%	-8.34%	-5.67%	-9.98%	-8.55%	-11.06%	-10.75%	-8.66%	-5.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	11	14	7	12	9	8	8	6	9	2
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No			No				Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	10	22	24	27	23	21	20	20	15	25
Penetrated Low		14	9	16	21	20	16	14	11	14	11	17
Scenario Percentage		58%	90%	73%	88%	74%	70%	67%	55%	70%	73%	68%
Avg Max Decline		5.96%	8.15%	13.82%	8.94%	8.66%	10.80%	7.91%	8.21%	8.83%	6.60%	5.56%
Max Decline		16.44%	20.64%	50.39%	46.68%	31.11%	23.48%	16.91%	12.64%	32.96%	17.76%	13.11%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	22	20	17	14	18	19	10	16	18	12
Avg Max Increase		-1.64%	-1.12%	-1.39%	-1.76%	-1.70%	-2.18%	-1.37%	-1.71%	-2.56%	-4.80%	-1.30%
Max Increase		-7.97%	-7.59%	-8.76%	-4.73%	-8.81%	-9.98%	-5.61%	-6.04%	-8.44%	-8.96%	-5.53%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	13	8	8	3	10	10	8	9	16	4
2015 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	No
High	314.15	320.15	329.40	326.35	321.70	309.85	306.65	294.65	283.40	271.40	291.45	288.95
Low	301.30	302.00	318.45	311.75	301.60	295.00	284.65	273.00	242.00	246.00	255.25	264.75
Close/Last	310.20	320.05	323.95	317.20	301.60	303.60	284.80	282.35	249.05	269.15	274.00	288.65