MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	32	22	22	18	24	25	26	25	31	20
Exceeded High		19	22	18	14	14	22	25	25	21	22	12
Scenario Percentage		95%	69%	82%	64%	78%	92%	100%	96%	84%	71%	60%
Avg Max Increase		8.77%	8.16%	8.41%	12.56%	11.23%	10.70%	10.23%	12.31%	12.68%	11.80%	8.14%
Max Increase		29.45%	35.14%	25.32%	34.02%	18.99%	37.37%	41.67%	42.84%	45.27%	68.90%	24.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	18	15	20	19	18	17	17	14	14	13
Avg Max Decline		-1.01%	-2.27%	-2.18%	-2.04%	-1.80%	-3.44%	-2.19%	-3.34%	-2.40%	-3.05%	-1.63%
Max Decline		-4.42%	-14.38%	-10.07%	-8.34%	-5.67%	-9.98%	-8.55%	-11.06%	-10.75%	-8.66%	-5.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	11	12	9	10	9	9	8	5	8	3
2013 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	11	21	23	26	21	20	19	20	14	25
Penetrated Low		14	9	15	20	19	15	13	10	13	11	17
Scenario Percentage		61%	82%	71%	87%	73%	71%	65%	53%	65%	79%	68%
Avg Max Decline		5.96%	8.15%	14.28%	9.10%	8.86%	10.52%	7.42%	8.03%	8.76%	6.60%	5.56%
Max Decline		16.44%	20.64%	50.39%	46.68%	31.11%	23.48%	16.91%	12.64%	32.96%	17.76%	13.11%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	22	21	17	14	17	19	10	16	18	12
Avg Max Increase		-1.64%	-1.12%	-1.39%	-1.71%	-1.77%	-2.10%	-1.45%	-1.52%	-2.64%	-4.80%	-1.30%
Max Increase		-7.97%	-7.59%	-8.76%	-4.73%	-8.81%	-9.98%	-5.61%	-6.04%	-8.44%	-8.96%	-5.53%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	13	8	7	3	10	10	7	9	16	4
2013 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes			Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
High	385.85	351.75	356.30	351.20	384.25	381.25	366.05	373.05	378.60	380.40	357.60	345.25
Low	339.35	331.00	336.50	332.00	348.30	350.00	343.75	353.40	361.50	353.35	338.80	305.70
Close/Last	339.35	351.75	344.60	347.15	377.00	353.60	365.90	366.20	374.50	354.75	340.20	318.75