MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		19	33	22	22	19	23	24	26	26	31	20
Exceeded High		18	23	18	15	15	21	24	25	21	22	12
Scenario Percentage		95%	70%	82%	68%	79%	91%	100%	96%	81%	71%	60%
Avg Max Increase		9.18%	8.11%	9.01%	13.19%	10.96%	11.04%	10.49%	12.99%	12.68%	11.80%	8.14%
Max Increase		29.45%	35.14%	25.32%	34.02%	18.99%	37.37%	41.67%	42.84%	45.27%	68.90%	24.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	18	16	20	20	17	18	18	14	14	13
Avg Max Decline		-0.90%	-2.29%	-2.29%	-2.22%	-1.77%	-3.44%	-2.23%	-3.36%	-2.40%	-3.05%	-1.63%
Max Decline		-4.42%	-14.38%	-10.07%	-8.34%	-5.67%	-9.98%	-8.55%	-11.06%	-10.75%	-8.66%	-5.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	11	13	9	10	8	9	9	5	8	3
2012 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes			No			Yes	No		Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	10	21	23	25	22	21	19	19	14	25
Penetrated Low		14	8	15	20	18	16	13	10	12	11	17
Scenario Percentage		58%	80%	71%	87%	72%	73%	62%	53%	63%	79%	68%
Avg Max Decline		5.96%	8.71%	14.28%	9.10%	9.19%	10.13%	7.42%	8.03%	8.33%	8.30%	5.62%
Max Decline		16.44%	20.64%	50.39%	46.68%	31.11%	23.48%	16.91%	12.64%	32.96%	29.02%	13.11%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	25	21	17	14	16	19	10	15	18	12
Avg Max Increase		-1.64%	-1.29%	-1.39%	-1.71%	-1.79%	-2.13%	-1.45%	-1.52%	-2.79%	-4.39%	-1.39%
Max Increase		-7.97%	-7.59%	-8.76%	-4.73%	-8.81%	-9.98%	-5.61%	-6.04%	-8.44%	-8.96%	-5.53%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	14	8	7	3	9	10	7	9	15	4
2012 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes
Action				Yes	Yes		No	No			Yes
High	429.25	430.50	451.35	452.60	418.50	375.60	367.75	363.75	394.05	399.50	394.95	395.80
Low	394.00	408.00	432.40	393.15	316.70	305.00	323.95	325.40	339.70	370.25	371.40	356.90
Close/Last	422.55	430.50	451.35	422.75	318.50	366.05	358.50	344.75	380.10	387.95	382.50	383.35