MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Dec 30, 2011
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		19	32	22	23	19	23	25	26	25	31	19
Exceeded High		18	22	18	16	16	21	24	24	21	22	11
Scenario Percentage		95%	69%	82%	70%	84%	91%	96%	92%	84%	71%	58%
Avg Max Increase		9.03%	8.47%	9.01%	12.75%	10.49%	11.04%	10.49%	13.32%	12.68%	11.80%	8.02%
Max Increase		29.45%	35.14%	25.32%	34.02%	18.99%	37.37%	41.67%	42.84%	45.27%	68.90%	24.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	19	16	20	19	17	18	18	14	14	11
Avg Max Decline		-0.95%	-2.32%	-2.29%	-2.40%	-1.70%	-3.44%	-2.23%	-3.47%	-2.40%	-3.05%	-1.46%
Max Decline		-4.42%	-14.38%	-10.07%	-8.34%	-5.67%	-9.98%	-8.55%	-11.06%	-10.75%	-8.66%	-5.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	11	13	9	9	8	9	9	5	8	3
2011 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	11	21	22	25	22	20	19	20	14	26
Penetrated Low		14	9	14	19	18	17	13	10	13	11	17
Scenario Percentage		58%	82%	67%	86%	72%	77%	65%	53%	65%	79%	65%
Avg Max Decline		5.96%	10.59%	13.31%	9.36%	9.19%	9.94%	7.42%	8.03%	8.81%	7.99%	5.62%
Max Decline		16.44%	25.66%	50.39%	46.68%	31.11%	23.48%	16.91%	12.64%	32.96%	29.02%	13.11%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	25	22	18	14	16	19	10	16	19	12
Avg Max Increase		-1.64%	-0.87%	-1.56%	-1.79%	-1.79%	-1.92%	-1.45%	-1.52%	-2.68%	-4.08%	-1.39%
Max Increase		-7.97%	-7.59%	-8.76%	-4.73%	-8.81%	-9.98%	-5.61%	-6.04%	-8.44%	-8.96%	-5.53%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	13	8	7	3	9	10	7	9	15	4
2011 Contract Condition		Yes									Yes	Yes
Action		No									Yes	Yes
High	333.55	315.50	334.35	344.00	366.90	388.90	407.75	444.35	449.00	465.75	455.40	453.30
Low	298.45	280.00	292.10	322.50	342.05	366.50	365.00	380.60	421.85	424.35	407.60	414.95
Close/Last	315.90	299.70	334.35	337.90	366.05	374.55	382.05	443.95	446.55	449.65	430.75	416.55