MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	19	32	22	23	19	21	24	27	25	32	20
Exceeded High	18	22	18	16	16	19	23	25	22	23	11
Scenario Percentage	95%	69%	82%	70%	84%	90%	96%	93%	88%	72%	55%
Avg Max Increase	7.84%	8.96%	10.62%	13.10%	8.94%	10.69%	11.76%	15.26%	14.90%	12.51%	8.02%
Max Increase	19.48%	35.14%	31.77%	34.02%	18.99%	37.37%	41.67%	42.84%	52.49%	68.90%	24.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase	18	20	15	18	17	18	18	19	14	14	11
Avg Max Decline	-0.66%	-2.32%	-2.03%	-2.37%	-2.55%	-3.64%	-2.21%	-3.30%	-2.48%	-2.91%	-1.46%
Max Decline	-2.48%	-14.38%	-10.07%	-8.34%	-14.19%	-9.98%	-8.55%	-11.06%	-10.75%	-8.66%	-5.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline	5	10	11	9	9	8	8	9	6	7	3
2009 Contract Condition	Yes							Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes							Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	24	11	21	22	25	24	21	18	20	13	25
Penetrated Low	15	9	14	19	18	18	14	9	13	10	20
Scenario Percentage	62%	82%	67%	86%	72%	75%	67%	50%	65%	77%	80%
Avg Max Decline	5.70%	10.59%	13.31%	9.36%	9.19%	10.11%	7.09%	8.06%	8.81%	7.72%	15.42%
Max Decline	16.44%	25.66%	50.39%	46.68%	31.11%	23.48%	16.91%	12.64%	32.96%	29.02%	53.07%
Avg Days To Max Decline	17	25	22	18	14	16	19	10	16	19	12
Avg Max Increase	-1.55%	-0.87%	-1.56%	-1.79%	-1.79%	-2.24%	-1.71%	-1.37%	-2.68%	-3.96%	-2.89%
Max Increase	-7.97%	-7.59%	-8.76%	-4.73%	-8.81%	-9.98%	-5.61%	-6.04%	-8.44%	-8.96%	-10.77%
Avg Days to Max Increase	12	13	8	7	3	9	10	8	9	16	9
2009 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
High	379.50	395.25	352.40	331.00	285.50	200.75	168.30	164.15	166.50	189.70	223.50
Low	347.00	348.50	319.75	284.90	166.70	154.00	127.10	138.50	141.35	150.60	179.60
Close/Last	379.50	359.00	336.00	288.80	184.50	166.10	142.05	148.30	153.85	184.45	205.30