MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		18	33	23	24	20	22	25	27	25	32	20
Exceeded High		17	23	19	17	17	20	24	25	22	23	12
Scenario Percentage		94%	70%	83%	71%	85%	91%	96%	93%	88%	72%	60%
Avg Max Increase		8.05%	8.68%	10.14%	12.36%	8.56%	10.46%	11.88%	14.93%	13.65%	12.00%	8.14%
Max Increase		19.48%	35.14%	31.77%	34.02%	18.99%	37.37%	41.67%	42.84%	52.49%	68.90%	24.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	20	16	19	18	19	19	19	14	15	13
Avg Max Decline		-0.74%	-2.22%	-1.92%	-2.27%	-2.42%	-3.45%	-2.13%	-3.09%	-2.45%	-2.81%	-1.63%
Max Decline		-2.48%	-14.38%	-10.07%	-8.34%	-14.19%	-9.98%	-8.55%	-11.06%	-10.75%	-8.66%	-5.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	10	10	8	10	8	8	8	6	7	3
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		25	10	20	21	24	23	20	18	20	13	25
Penetrated Low		15	8	13	18	17	17	14	9	13	10	15
Scenario Percentage		60%	80%	65%	86%	71%	74%	70%	50%	65%	77%	60%
Avg Max Decline		5.70%	9.34%	10.46%	7.28%	7.90%	9.33%	7.09%	8.06%	8.81%	7.72%	4.99%
Max Decline		16.44%	25.66%	20.86%	15.54%	18.54%	22.54%	16.91%	12.64%	32.96%	29.02%	12.74%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	24	22	18	13	15	19	10	16	19	12
Avg Max Increase		-1.55%	-1.21%	-1.79%	-1.95%	-1.38%	-2.29%	-1.71%	-1.37%	-2.68%	-3.96%	-1.47%
Max Increase		-7.97%	-7.59%	-8.76%	-4.73%	-5.28%	-9.98%	-5.61%	-6.04%	-8.44%	-8.96%	-5.53%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	14	9	7	3	9	10	8	9	16	4
2008 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action				No		Yes	Yes	No			Not Yet
High	350.55	328.30	353.30	348.40	360.05	371.25	341.25	320.65	338.00	391.05	402.40	404.95
Low	302.75	307.15	332.60	300.40	318.00	345.15	293.50	287.00	303.40	319.50	346.10	370.90
Close/Last	320.50	328.30	350.85	333.20	358.90	348.75	319.20	305.20	331.60	385.50	383.10	393.40