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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   43 43 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   18 33 23 24 20 22 25 27 25 32 20
Exceeded High   17 23 19 17 17 20 24 25 22 23 12
Scenario Percentage   94% 70% 83% 71% 85% 91% 96% 93% 88% 72% 60%
Avg Max Increase   8.05% 8.68% 10.14% 12.36% 8.56% 10.46% 11.88% 14.93% 13.65% 12.00% 8.14%
Max Increase   19.48% 35.14% 31.77% 34.02% 18.99% 37.37% 41.67% 42.84% 52.49% 68.90% 24.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase   19 20 16 19 18 19 19 19 14 15 13
Avg Max Decline   -0.74% -2.22% -1.92% -2.27% -2.42% -3.45% -2.13% -3.09% -2.45% -2.81% -1.63%
Max Decline   -2.48% -14.38% -10.07% -8.34% -14.19% -9.98% -8.55% -11.06% -10.75% -8.66% -5.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 10 10 8 10 8 8 8 6 7 3
2008 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes       Yes Yes   Yes
Action   Yes Yes   Yes       Yes Yes   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   43 43 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   25 10 20 21 24 23 20 18 20 13 25
Penetrated Low   15 8 13 18 17 17 14 9 13 10 15
Scenario Percentage   60% 80% 65% 86% 71% 74% 70% 50% 65% 77% 60%
Avg Max Decline   5.70% 9.34% 10.46% 7.28% 7.90% 9.33% 7.09% 8.06% 8.81% 7.72% 4.99%
Max Decline   16.44% 25.66% 20.86% 15.54% 18.54% 22.54% 16.91% 12.64% 32.96% 29.02% 12.74%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 24 22 18 13 15 19 10 16 19 12
Avg Max Increase   -1.55% -1.21% -1.79% -1.95% -1.38% -2.29% -1.71% -1.37% -2.68% -3.96% -1.47%
Max Increase   -7.97% -7.59% -8.76% -4.73% -5.28% -9.98% -5.61% -6.04% -8.44% -8.96% -5.53%
Avg Days to Max Increase   12 14 9 7 3 9 10 8 9 16 4
2008 Contract Condition       Yes   Yes Yes Yes     Yes  
Action       No   Yes Yes No     Not Yet  
High 350.55 328.30 353.30 348.40 360.05 371.25 341.25 320.65 338.00 391.05 402.40 404.95
Low 302.75 307.15 332.60 300.40 318.00 345.15 293.50 287.00 303.40 319.50 346.10 370.90
Close/Last 320.50 328.30 350.85 333.20 358.90 348.75 319.20 305.20 331.60 385.50 383.10 393.40

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