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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Copper(CMX) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   23 20 20 31 21 24 20 23 26 24 22
Exceeded High   17 13 19 22 18 13 13 20 23 21 15
Scenario Percentage   74% 65% 95% 71% 86% 54% 65% 87% 88% 88% 68%
Avg Max Increase   9.06% 9.34% 8.65% 7.16% 9.33% 15.43% 16.14% 10.95% 10.32% 10.41% 8.05%
Max Increase   22.59% 22.17% 30.92% 19.39% 26.95% 42.58% 62.39% 35.25% 39.26% 26.97% 22.18%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 23 18 16 20 19 22 17 15 15 15
Avg Max Decline   -1.89% -2.20% -1.34% -2.73% -3.58% -2.73% -2.25% -3.62% -2.58% -3.26% -1.97%
Max Decline   -14.06% -8.82% -5.01% -15.30% -9.63% -10.21% -6.80% -10.31% -9.34% -13.65% -8.10%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 9 5 12 16 8 14 11 9 8 4
2023 Contract Condition                 Yes Yes Yes  
Action                 Yes Yes Not Yet  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 24 24 12 24 21 24 22 19 21 23
Penetrated Low   17 19 14 10 16 15 17 16 12 12 13
Scenario Percentage   81% 79% 58% 83% 67% 71% 71% 73% 63% 57% 57%
Avg Max Decline   8.40% 9.49% 7.31% 7.77% 11.80% 9.24% 9.30% 10.39% 8.11% 8.84% 6.02%
Max Decline   17.75% 27.23% 16.03% 22.73% 51.51% 47.11% 31.61% 23.92% 16.93% 18.18% 27.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 13 16 18 19 15 17 17 15 13 17
Avg Max Increase   -1.81% -1.23% -1.73% -1.37% -2.27% -2.05% -2.32% -3.02% -1.70% -2.96% -1.60%
Max Increase   -6.88% -7.69% -8.27% -8.17% -8.95% -6.24% -9.84% -11.76% -5.95% -11.49% -4.96%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 3 10 12 8 8 6 10 9 8 4
2023 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes       Yes
Action   Yes Yes Yes No Yes No No       Yes
High 492.20 482.55 443.10 457.65 370.60 377.90 368.10 356.95 394.70 394.15 435.50 423.70
Low 449.60 440.00 407.00 368.55 314.25 344.20 323.65 329.80 336.10 372.30 370.85 393.45
Close/Last 473.80 442.45 431.85 372.95 358.75 351.70 339.40 335.75 373.80 381.05 422.60 409.75

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