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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Copper(CMX) as of Jun 30, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   23 20 20 31 21 25 20 23 26 23 22
Exceeded High   17 13 19 22 18 14 13 20 23 21 15
Scenario Percentage   74% 65% 95% 71% 86% 56% 65% 87% 88% 91% 68%
Avg Max Increase   9.06% 9.34% 8.65% 7.16% 9.33% 14.56% 16.14% 10.46% 9.80% 10.41% 8.05%
Max Increase   22.59% 22.17% 30.92% 19.39% 26.95% 42.58% 62.39% 35.25% 39.26% 26.97% 22.18%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 23 18 16 20 19 22 16 14 15 15
Avg Max Decline   -1.89% -2.20% -1.34% -2.73% -3.58% -2.61% -2.25% -3.59% -2.43% -3.26% -1.97%
Max Decline   -14.06% -8.82% -5.01% -15.30% -9.63% -10.21% -6.80% -10.31% -9.34% -13.65% -8.10%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 9 5 12 16 8 14 9 9 8 4
2022 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes   Yes
Action   Yes No   No     No   Yes   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 24 24 12 24 20 24 22 19 22 23
Penetrated Low   17 19 14 11 15 15 18 16 12 13 13
Scenario Percentage   81% 79% 58% 92% 63% 75% 75% 73% 63% 59% 57%
Avg Max Decline   7.99% 8.46% 7.18% 7.76% 12.05% 9.24% 8.89% 10.39% 8.11% 8.60% 5.65%
Max Decline   17.75% 22.03% 16.03% 22.73% 51.51% 47.11% 31.61% 23.92% 16.93% 18.18% 27.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 13 16 17 18 15 16 17 15 12 16
Avg Max Increase   -1.89% -1.24% -1.69% -1.16% -2.11% -2.05% -2.22% -3.02% -1.70% -2.84% -1.45%
Max Increase   -6.88% -7.69% -8.27% -8.17% -8.95% -6.24% -9.84% -11.76% -5.95% -11.49% -4.96%
Avg Days to Max Increase   6 4 10 11 7 8 5 10 9 8 4
2022 Contract Condition       Yes   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes  
Action       Yes   No No   Yes   Not Yet  
High 416.50 452.10 485.20 470.60 455.90 448.30 445.85 477.70 451.15 449.85 460.10 470.85
Low 382.00 395.10 442.40 411.60 416.85 397.05 401.30 404.40 420.00 411.95 428.20 431.10
Close/Last 398.25 444.75 468.50 428.20 444.40 435.75 407.25 434.00 428.00 446.35 432.45 444.45

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