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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Copper(CMX) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   22 18 21 30 21 25 19 23 26 23 22
Exceeded High   16 12 20 22 17 14 12 20 23 21 16
Scenario Percentage   73% 67% 95% 73% 81% 56% 63% 87% 88% 91% 73%
Avg Max Increase   8.45% 8.27% 8.32% 7.14% 9.62% 14.56% 15.86% 10.84% 9.17% 9.69% 7.59%
Max Increase   22.59% 19.55% 30.92% 19.39% 26.95% 42.58% 62.39% 35.25% 39.26% 26.97% 22.18%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 23 17 17 20 19 23 17 15 14 17
Avg Max Decline   -2.14% -2.39% -1.40% -2.70% -3.35% -2.61% -2.38% -3.68% -2.41% -3.26% -2.06%
Max Decline   -14.06% -8.82% -5.01% -15.30% -9.63% -10.21% -6.80% -10.31% -9.34% -13.65% -8.10%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 10 5 11 15 8 15 9 8 8 4
2020 Contract Condition       Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action       Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes   Not Yet
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   22 26 23 13 24 20 25 22 19 22 23
Penetrated Low   18 20 13 12 16 16 18 16 12 13 12
Scenario Percentage   82% 77% 57% 92% 67% 80% 72% 73% 63% 59% 52%
Avg Max Decline   8.06% 8.33% 7.18% 8.53% 12.60% 9.66% 8.89% 10.27% 8.11% 8.60% 5.50%
Max Decline   17.75% 22.03% 16.03% 22.73% 51.51% 47.11% 31.61% 23.92% 16.93% 18.18% 27.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 13 16 18 19 17 16 17 15 12 15
Avg Max Increase   -1.85% -1.21% -1.32% -1.02% -2.18% -2.12% -2.22% -2.96% -1.70% -2.84% -1.43%
Max Increase   -6.88% -7.69% -8.27% -8.17% -8.95% -6.24% -9.84% -11.76% -5.95% -11.49% -4.96%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 4 9 10 7 8 5 10 9 8 4
2020 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes Yes         Yes  
Action   Yes Yes   Yes Yes         Yes  
High 299.05 302.05 293.95 275.30 281.15 268.75 271.50 270.55 273.85 285.65 288.60 263.25
Low 287.15 289.60 263.85 261.30 262.95 251.00 249.20 252.60 262.80 262.05 250.35 248.75
Close/Last 295.45 293.65 264.80 272.60 268.70 256.15 258.95 264.70 266.15 279.70 251.70 254.60

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