MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Copper(CMX) as of Dec 30, 2011
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		43	43	43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	19	19	30	23	23	19	23	27	26	23
Exceeded High		17	14	18	21	19	16	14	21	24	23	19
Scenario Percentage		74%	74%	95%	70%	83%	70%	74%	91%	89%	88%	83%
Avg Max Increase		9.13%	9.13%	9.67%	7.65%	10.24%	13.88%	14.74%	11.80%	11.71%	13.27%	7.62%
Max Increase		22.59%	24.85%	30.92%	19.39%	26.95%	42.58%	62.39%	35.25%	39.26%	43.44%	22.18%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	21	19	17	21	20	20	18	17	16	17
Avg Max Decline		-2.51%	-2.04%	-1.30%	-2.87%	-3.46%	-2.82%	-1.75%	-3.92%	-2.33%	-3.38%	-1.79%
Max Decline		-14.06%	-8.82%	-5.01%	-15.30%	-9.82%	-10.21%	-6.80%	-10.31%	-8.88%	-13.65%	-8.10%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	9	5	12	14	9	8	9	8	9	4
2011 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		43	43	43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	24	24	12	21	22	24	22	18	19	22
Penetrated Low		15	18	13	10	14	18	17	16	12	10	11
Scenario Percentage		75%	75%	54%	83%	67%	82%	71%	73%	67%	53%	50%
Avg Max Decline		7.73%	8.68%	6.69%	13.10%	14.29%	10.53%	9.98%	10.68%	7.45%	7.74%	5.78%
Max Decline		17.75%	22.03%	18.21%	30.67%	51.51%	47.11%	31.61%	23.92%	16.93%	11.35%	27.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	12	17	22	22	18	16	17	16	9	15
Avg Max Increase		-1.46%	-1.33%	-2.06%	-0.97%	-2.04%	-2.14%	-2.25%	-2.33%	-1.75%	-2.61%	-1.35%
Max Increase		-6.88%	-8.53%	-8.27%	-8.17%	-8.95%	-6.24%	-9.84%	-11.76%	-5.95%	-11.49%	-4.96%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	5	13	11	9	7	4	9	10	5	2
2011 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No
High	359.90	366.40	336.15	315.00	334.05	344.00	368.00	390.70	408.75	445.20	449.80	464.95
Low	335.00	338.00	298.05	279.00	291.30	321.70	341.15	365.70	361.10	378.70	420.80	422.55
Close/Last	358.80	339.20	315.40	298.90	334.05	337.80	366.15	374.50	382.55	444.70	445.85	447.80