MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Copper(CMX) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		43	43	43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	19	19	30	23	23	19	22	27	26	23
Exceeded High		17	14	18	21	19	16	14	20	24	23	20
Scenario Percentage		71%	74%	95%	70%	83%	70%	74%	91%	89%	88%	87%
Avg Max Increase		9.13%	9.13%	9.67%	8.12%	10.55%	13.85%	13.76%	11.52%	12.75%	14.48%	7.91%
Max Increase		22.59%	24.85%	30.92%	19.95%	26.95%	42.58%	62.39%	35.25%	39.26%	43.44%	22.18%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	21	19	17	21	20	20	19	17	17	17
Avg Max Decline		-2.51%	-2.04%	-1.30%	-2.74%	-3.53%	-3.05%	-2.55%	-4.07%	-2.20%	-3.33%	-1.82%
Max Decline		-14.06%	-8.82%	-5.01%	-15.30%	-9.82%	-10.21%	-14.81%	-10.31%	-8.88%	-13.65%	-8.10%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	9	5	11	13	9	9	9	8	9	4
2010 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		43	43	43	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	24	24	12	21	22	24	23	18	19	22
Penetrated Low		14	18	14	10	14	18	17	16	12	10	11
Scenario Percentage		74%	75%	58%	83%	67%	82%	71%	70%	67%	53%	50%
Avg Max Decline		7.02%	8.38%	6.38%	13.10%	14.29%	10.53%	9.98%	10.68%	7.45%	7.74%	5.78%
Max Decline		12.66%	22.03%	18.21%	30.67%	51.51%	47.11%	31.61%	23.92%	16.93%	11.35%	27.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	12	16	22	22	18	16	17	16	9	15
Avg Max Increase		-1.63%	-1.58%	-1.89%	-0.97%	-2.04%	-2.14%	-2.25%	-2.33%	-1.75%	-2.61%	-1.35%
Max Increase		-6.88%	-8.53%	-8.27%	-8.17%	-8.95%	-6.24%	-9.84%	-11.76%	-5.95%	-11.49%	-4.96%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	6	12	11	9	7	4	9	10	5	2
2010 Contract Condition											Yes
Action											Yes
High	190.40	222.55	220.25	246.60	263.30	298.95	298.25	308.45	323.00	337.90	354.40	336.50
Low	155.20	187.70	201.00	215.90	216.90	268.50	268.85	265.70	291.45	308.15	303.45	281.10
Close/Last	188.10	203.90	220.25	228.35	263.15	282.95	283.15	297.40	317.70	334.65	305.25	326.85