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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for June Lean Hogs(CME) as of Jul 19, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   20 24 29 26 32 21 30 23 24 23 25
Exceeded High   16 22 24 22 27 18 26 21 20 18 13
Scenario Percentage   80% 92% 83% 85% 84% 86% 87% 91% 83% 78% 52%
Avg Max Increase   5.20% 5.52% 5.94% 5.49% 5.42% 8.13% 8.48% 10.10% 9.66% 7.65% 5.05%
Max Increase   12.89% 11.31% 11.39% 12.62% 17.51% 24.60% 27.28% 31.53% 23.07% 17.35% 8.27%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 14 22 16 18 19 19 16 19 14 10
Avg Max Decline   -2.38% -1.83% -1.90% -2.02% -2.83% -1.49% -2.71% -1.82% -2.51% -1.76% -0.54%
Max Decline   -6.15% -6.57% -7.73% -5.95% -6.96% -4.79% -7.58% -6.47% -8.16% -3.66% -2.21%
Avg Days to Max Decline   9 11 12 11 13 8 12 8 7 4 2
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action     Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   25 21 16 19 13 23 15 22 20 22 20
Penetrated Low   20 10 13 12 9 16 14 18 16 17 13
Scenario Percentage   80% 48% 81% 63% 69% 70% 93% 82% 80% 77% 65%
Avg Max Decline   5.46% 5.20% 4.45% 4.57% 7.34% 6.70% 9.02% 10.57% 10.94% 7.43% 5.48%
Max Decline   13.02% 15.17% 11.91% 7.80% 15.49% 15.89% 22.80% 24.91% 31.21% 13.88% 18.29%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 12 17 16 14 15 20 18 13 11 6
Avg Max Increase   -1.60% -2.67% -2.13% -2.16% -2.04% -2.42% -2.51% -1.74% -1.41% -2.56% -0.26%
Max Increase   -5.42% -7.70% -5.59% -4.58% -6.71% -7.23% -9.63% -7.24% -5.12% -7.67% -1.57%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 12 6 13 9 14 15 7 4 5 1
2025 Contract Condition   Yes         Yes   Yes      
Action   Yes         Yes   Yes      
High 95.500 92.000 91.800 94.630 97.780 101.880 103.150 104.650 106.350 99.700 101.980 101.600
Low 89.880 86.880 85.750 91.280 94.050 96.780 98.080 97.950 94.730 92.000 88.000 96.680
Close/Last 91.650 90.230 91.730 94.230 97.650 101.300 99.180 103.000 95.030 95.280 98.280 101.330

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