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ScenarioSM Study for June Lean Hogs(CME) as of May 17, 2024 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 21 | 23 | 29 | 27 | 33 | 22 | 29 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 24 | |
Exceeded High | 17 | 21 | 24 | 22 | 27 | 19 | 25 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 13 | |
Scenario Percentage | 81% | 91% | 83% | 81% | 82% | 86% | 86% | 87% | 82% | 74% | 54% | |
Avg Max Increase | 5.57% | 5.70% | 5.81% | 5.75% | 5.49% | 7.97% | 8.77% | 10.10% | 9.89% | 8.12% | 5.56% | |
Max Increase | 12.89% | 11.31% | 11.39% | 12.62% | 17.51% | 24.60% | 27.28% | 31.53% | 23.07% | 17.35% | 10.69% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 17 | 13 | 22 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 16 | 19 | 13 | 11 | |
Avg Max Decline | -2.63% | -1.97% | -1.93% | -2.04% | -3.03% | -1.42% | -2.59% | -1.86% | -2.29% | -1.77% | -0.57% | |
Max Decline | -6.63% | -6.57% | -7.73% | -5.95% | -8.69% | -4.79% | -7.58% | -6.47% | -8.16% | -3.66% | -2.21% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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