MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Lean Hogs(CME) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		20	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
Closed Higher		12	10	12	14	12	17	9	13	10	11	12
Exceeded High		8	8	11	13	9	13	8	12	9	8	11
Scenario Percentage		67%	80%	92%	93%	75%	76%	89%	92%	90%	73%	92%
Avg Max Increase		6.54%	4.24%	5.14%	5.68%	5.06%	4.87%	9.58%	9.14%	10.87%	8.56%	5.05%
Max Increase		17.80%	7.45%	12.16%	16.19%	15.30%	14.81%	26.89%	25.75%	25.77%	20.41%	16.61%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	21	15	21	22	21	18	18	19	7	7
Avg Max Decline		-0.24%	-2.43%	-1.73%	-2.76%	-2.53%	-4.28%	-2.20%	-1.95%	-1.94%	-2.71%	-0.37%
Max Decline		-1.51%	-3.35%	-5.91%	-9.77%	-4.33%	-9.21%	-5.91%	-5.63%	-3.95%	-4.58%	-2.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline		2	13	13	9	12	15	13	11	7	6	2
2022 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		20	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
Closed Lower		8	11	9	7	9	4	11	8	11	10	9
Penetrated Low		5	10	4	3	5	2	8	8	10	8	7
Scenario Percentage		63%	91%	44%	43%	56%	50%	73%	100%	91%	80%	78%
Avg Max Decline		8.13%	6.11%	6.73%	5.22%	6.29%	11.00%	9.74%	11.73%	16.55%	13.98%	4.48%
Max Decline		17.13%	12.24%	13.95%	10.95%	9.21%	13.69%	16.91%	25.10%	49.25%	33.88%	6.09%
Avg Days To Max Decline		11	14	14	18	16	28	13	22	16	8	6
Avg Max Increase		-3.52%	-1.51%	-1.35%	-2.79%	-3.50%	-3.52%	-1.16%	-2.79%	-1.82%	-0.59%	-0.48%
Max Increase		-6.90%	-4.75%	-3.18%	-4.93%	-6.36%	-6.58%	-3.47%	-8.60%	-4.30%	-2.80%	-1.84%
Avg Days to Max Increase		18	7	7	3	18	16	5	15	11	3	1
2022 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes						Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		No						Yes
High	90.800	94.100	92.130	90.830	92.250	92.800	92.800	93.050	101.480	116.100	120.330	117.050
Low	87.000	84.430	87.000	86.250	82.350	83.130	86.280	86.500	89.030	99.100	103.650	100.580
Close/Last	88.530	89.950	88.750	88.130	92.130	87.200	90.380	91.500	99.680	107.650	113.580	100.900