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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Lean Hogs(CME) as of Jul 14, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   21 23 21 16 27 25 28 20 26 16 21
Exceeded High   16 11 15 13 23 21 23 16 22 13 12
Scenario Percentage   76% 48% 71% 81% 85% 84% 82% 80% 85% 81% 57%
Avg Max Increase   7.19% 7.34% 6.93% 7.74% 7.57% 6.73% 5.59% 9.16% 10.00% 9.94% 5.21%
Max Increase   19.34% 14.70% 14.24% 13.78% 15.02% 13.13% 18.26% 30.12% 34.28% 20.52% 11.10%
Avg Days To Max Increase   21 18 19 17 20 18 17 17 17 12 8
Avg Max Decline   -1.80% -0.56% -3.28% -2.24% -2.12% -2.58% -3.22% -2.08% -2.99% -1.89% -0.59%
Max Decline   -7.98% -3.17% -6.23% -4.97% -6.61% -7.70% -7.66% -3.61% -8.38% -4.81% -1.71%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 8 12 13 9 12 11 8 8 6 1
2025 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes   Yes
Action   No     Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes   Not Yet
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   23 22 24 28 18 20 17 25 19 29 24
Penetrated Low   19 15 20 17 15 16 12 17 18 23 15
Scenario Percentage   83% 68% 83% 61% 83% 80% 71% 68% 95% 79% 63%
Avg Max Decline   8.78% 9.38% 7.43% 6.51% 5.66% 5.69% 9.04% 9.65% 11.07% 9.78% 7.25%
Max Decline   23.15% 18.77% 15.50% 17.03% 10.97% 12.16% 20.96% 24.08% 21.45% 32.36% 28.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 17 15 16 14 15 13 17 22 10 8
Avg Max Increase   -1.95% -2.13% -1.99% -3.01% -2.77% -2.61% -2.34% -3.17% -2.57% -1.61% -0.66%
Max Increase   -5.73% -5.90% -7.07% -11.24% -7.40% -5.56% -7.45% -9.44% -10.80% -5.44% -2.50%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 11 6 14 10 12 8 11 13 4 2
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes         Yes   Yes  
Action     Yes Yes         Yes   Yes  
High 85.500 85.550 85.100 80.230 79.730 83.630 88.480 92.800 93.600 92.750 94.750 88.600
Low 83.030 82.950 77.830 73.050 72.650 79.150 82.680 86.400 85.450 84.500 83.600 80.730
Close/Last 84.450 84.880 80.000 77.650 79.630 82.780 88.100 90.750 86.580 90.350 83.680 87.730

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