MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Lean Hogs(CME) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	22	21	16	27	25	30	21	26	17	20
Exceeded High		16	11	15	13	23	21	24	17	22	13	12
Scenario Percentage		80%	50%	71%	81%	85%	84%	80%	81%	85%	76%	60%
Avg Max Increase		7.19%	7.34%	7.49%	7.50%	7.29%	7.74%	6.40%	9.75%	10.44%	10.18%	5.09%
Max Increase		19.34%	14.70%	14.24%	13.78%	15.02%	19.25%	21.99%	30.12%	34.28%	20.52%	11.10%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	18	20	16	20	19	19	17	17	12	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.80%	-0.56%	-3.46%	-2.46%	-2.32%	-2.37%	-3.46%	-2.02%	-2.59%	-1.72%	-0.57%
Max Decline		-7.98%	-3.17%	-7.45%	-4.97%	-6.61%	-7.70%	-7.66%	-3.61%	-8.38%	-4.81%	-1.71%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	8	11	13	10	9	12	9	7	6	2
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	23	24	28	17	20	15	24	19	28	25
Penetrated Low		21	15	20	15	14	16	10	15	18	22	16
Scenario Percentage		88%	65%	83%	54%	82%	80%	67%	63%	95%	79%	64%
Avg Max Decline		9.06%	10.35%	7.26%	6.01%	5.81%	5.42%	9.35%	10.42%	11.70%	10.58%	7.11%
Max Decline		23.15%	18.77%	15.50%	17.03%	10.97%	12.16%	20.96%	24.08%	24.53%	32.36%	28.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	15	15	17	14	15	13	18	22	10	7
Avg Max Increase		-2.29%	-2.34%	-2.06%	-2.92%	-3.02%	-2.80%	-1.80%	-2.91%	-2.42%	-1.62%	-0.68%
Max Increase		-8.69%	-6.76%	-7.07%	-11.24%	-7.40%	-6.29%	-6.63%	-6.34%	-10.80%	-5.44%	-2.50%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	9	6	13	10	13	5	10	13	4	2
2022 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes		Yes					Yes
Action				Yes	Yes		No					Yes
High	85.000	88.430	91.880	89.180	87.850	89.250	89.600	88.500	88.580	97.500	112.850	108.450
Low	78.530	84.050	81.100	83.750	83.100	78.280	78.100	81.230	80.900	83.600	94.630	98.480
Close/Last	84.750	86.200	86.750	85.550	85.300	89.030	82.050	85.250	86.730	95.700	103.500	101.750