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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for February Lean Hogs(CME) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   25 28 24 22 25 18 29 23 30 17 25
Exceeded High   21 19 19 15 17 14 25 18 21 11 18
Scenario Percentage   84% 68% 79% 68% 68% 78% 86% 78% 70% 65% 72%
Avg Max Increase   6.13% 5.26% 6.53% 6.47% 6.25% 9.37% 8.47% 7.38% 6.25% 7.81% 3.65%
Max Increase   23.28% 17.39% 19.99% 12.13% 12.61% 16.92% 19.63% 21.87% 25.48% 13.53% 11.94%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 14 20 17 15 17 18 14 15 16 7
Avg Max Decline   -1.28% -1.36% -2.87% -0.90% -2.84% -2.15% -2.47% -2.88% -3.29% -3.60% -0.72%
Max Decline   -4.14% -4.85% -13.44% -4.38% -7.47% -5.20% -10.74% -10.34% -8.14% -5.96% -2.49%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 12 13 7 9 9 5 9 7 6 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes         Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action   Yes         Yes Yes Yes No   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   19 17 20 22 20 27 16 22 15 28 19
Penetrated Low   11 15 17 17 16 16 14 16 12 17 15
Scenario Percentage   58% 88% 85% 77% 80% 59% 88% 73% 80% 61% 79%
Avg Max Decline   7.24% 5.60% 10.88% 9.89% 8.07% 8.21% 7.19% 6.82% 10.41% 7.94% 4.96%
Max Decline   18.78% 11.33% 27.67% 20.29% 17.84% 18.24% 14.37% 13.98% 28.71% 24.75% 10.85%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 19 16 16 15 16 13 17 17 10 9
Avg Max Increase   -1.66% -2.28% -1.98% -2.31% -2.40% -3.28% -2.72% -3.42% -3.19% -1.87% -1.13%
Max Increase   -4.58% -6.92% -5.78% -9.09% -6.58% -7.87% -5.48% -8.90% -9.20% -7.28% -3.28%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 9 8 12 7 12 14 14 9 6 2
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes         Yes  
Action     Yes Yes Yes No         Yes  
High 79.680 81.280 82.050 81.730 80.930 74.850 75.580 78.980 86.230 89.600 89.280 85.200
Low 77.880 79.250 79.200 79.030 72.630 66.630 67.330 74.280 77.230 82.100 80.000 78.450
Close/Last 79.600 81.230 80.750 80.600 74.580 72.450 75.380 77.380 85.200 86.330 81.300 84.180

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