MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Gold(CMX) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Higher		19	20	15	18	18	15	20	23	26	18	21
Exceeded High		14	12	10	13	13	11	16	18	19	14	15
Scenario Percentage		74%	60%	67%	72%	72%	73%	80%	78%	73%	78%	71%
Avg Max Increase		6.74%	5.05%	8.50%	6.45%	6.57%	6.06%	12.72%	11.47%	8.67%	7.29%	4.90%
Max Increase		15.14%	11.10%	24.83%	13.41%	26.11%	14.27%	43.18%	36.06%	21.45%	17.88%	21.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	17	14	16	13	15	18	17	15	9	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.89%	-1.23%	-1.14%	-1.72%	-1.65%	-1.27%	-2.07%	-0.91%	-1.64%	-1.29%	-1.45%
Max Decline		-6.75%	-2.96%	-2.01%	-6.89%	-4.98%	-4.24%	-4.30%	-3.76%	-6.62%	-3.23%	-9.34%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	8	5	9	6	10	6	4	9	2	3
2016 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	No		No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Lower		23	21	27	24	24	27	22	19	16	24	21
Penetrated Low		18	19	22	20	18	15	15	13	11	19	15
Scenario Percentage		78%	90%	81%	83%	75%	56%	68%	68%	69%	79%	71%
Avg Max Decline		5.20%	7.34%	5.24%	5.73%	6.94%	5.72%	6.04%	8.12%	6.01%	5.87%	3.87%
Max Decline		20.62%	30.24%	10.97%	19.88%	19.59%	20.63%	19.82%	20.76%	11.40%	16.04%	13.70%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	14	16	18	16	13	17	19	19	13	11
Avg Max Increase		-2.20%	-1.56%	-1.71%	-2.51%	-1.84%	-1.41%	-1.18%	-1.75%	-2.52%	-2.10%	-0.87%
Max Increase		-12.26%	-9.02%	-9.59%	-5.89%	-4.96%	-5.70%	-5.34%	-12.10%	-6.86%	-7.92%	-2.23%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	8	8	11	5	7	6	12	14	10	3
2016 Contract Condition						Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes
Action						No			Yes		Yes	Yes
High	1092.9	1131.1	1265.5	1288.0	1303.7	1311.5	1368.9	1384.4	1374.2	1357.6	1322.6	1338.3
Low	1052.6	1066.0	1119.4	1213.1	1215.0	1207.0	1214.0	1318.5	1306.9	1305.5	1243.2	1167.9
Close/Last	1064.6	1118.6	1237.4	1239.6	1296.3	1223.1	1327.4	1357.5	1311.4	1317.1	1273.1	1170.8