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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Gold(CMX) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42
Closed Higher   19 20 15 18 18 15 20 23 26 18 21
Exceeded High   14 12 10 13 13 11 16 18 19 14 15
Scenario Percentage   74% 60% 67% 72% 72% 73% 80% 78% 73% 78% 71%
Avg Max Increase   6.74% 5.05% 8.50% 6.45% 6.57% 6.06% 12.72% 11.47% 8.67% 7.29% 4.90%
Max Increase   15.14% 11.10% 24.83% 13.41% 26.11% 14.27% 43.18% 36.06% 21.45% 17.88% 21.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 17 14 16 13 15 18 17 15 9 12
Avg Max Decline   -1.89% -1.23% -1.14% -1.72% -1.65% -1.27% -2.07% -0.91% -1.64% -1.29% -1.45%
Max Decline   -6.75% -2.96% -2.01% -6.89% -4.98% -4.24% -4.30% -3.76% -6.62% -3.23% -9.34%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 8 5 9 6 10 6 4 9 2 3
2016 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes   Yes    
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes No   No    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42
Closed Lower   23 21 27 24 24 27 22 19 16 24 21
Penetrated Low   18 19 22 20 18 15 15 13 11 19 15
Scenario Percentage   78% 90% 81% 83% 75% 56% 68% 68% 69% 79% 71%
Avg Max Decline   5.20% 7.34% 5.24% 5.73% 6.94% 5.72% 6.04% 8.12% 6.01% 5.87% 3.87%
Max Decline   20.62% 30.24% 10.97% 19.88% 19.59% 20.63% 19.82% 20.76% 11.40% 16.04% 13.70%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 14 16 18 16 13 17 19 19 13 11
Avg Max Increase   -2.20% -1.56% -1.71% -2.51% -1.84% -1.41% -1.18% -1.75% -2.52% -2.10% -0.87%
Max Increase   -12.26% -9.02% -9.59% -5.89% -4.96% -5.70% -5.34% -12.10% -6.86% -7.92% -2.23%
Avg Days to Max Increase   12 8 8 11 5 7 6 12 14 10 3
2016 Contract Condition           Yes     Yes   Yes Yes
Action           No     Yes   Yes Yes
High 1092.9 1131.1 1265.5 1288.0 1303.7 1311.5 1368.9 1384.4 1374.2 1357.6 1322.6 1338.3
Low 1052.6 1066.0 1119.4 1213.1 1215.0 1207.0 1214.0 1318.5 1306.9 1305.5 1243.2 1167.9
Close/Last 1064.6 1118.6 1237.4 1239.6 1296.3 1223.1 1327.4 1357.5 1311.4 1317.1 1273.1 1170.8

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