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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for August Gold(CMX) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   27 18 23 21 22 21 16 19 20 16 21
Exceeded High   16 14 18 18 16 14 11 12 15 12 17
Scenario Percentage   59% 78% 78% 86% 73% 67% 69% 63% 75% 75% 81%
Avg Max Increase   9.20% 7.28% 11.32% 11.18% 6.41% 4.64% 7.97% 6.89% 6.46% 6.09% 7.24%
Max Increase   22.72% 17.78% 103.03% 58.22% 15.10% 11.14% 24.84% 13.80% 25.41% 14.18% 25.62%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 11 16 16 15 17 13 17 13 15 17
Avg Max Decline   -0.92% -1.03% -1.55% -1.31% -1.77% -1.38% -1.02% -1.66% -1.53% -1.35% -1.40%
Max Decline   -4.16% -3.13% -8.14% -8.72% -6.76% -4.67% -2.04% -7.05% -4.89% -4.32% -3.56%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 4 7 7 7 8 5 8 5 9 3
2019 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes
Action     Yes Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   17 26 21 23 23 24 29 26 25 28 24
Penetrated Low   12 23 16 17 18 22 23 22 19 17 17
Scenario Percentage   71% 88% 76% 74% 78% 92% 79% 85% 76% 61% 71%
Avg Max Decline   4.63% 5.23% 6.95% 7.23% 5.14% 6.65% 4.80% 5.33% 6.88% 5.64% 3.78%
Max Decline   8.59% 14.35% 25.16% 21.14% 20.15% 29.37% 10.55% 19.96% 19.39% 18.48% 14.55%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 15 17 17 14 14 17 18 15 11 14
Avg Max Increase   -1.61% -1.97% -1.79% -0.69% -2.11% -1.53% -1.64% -2.28% -1.78% -1.03% -0.94%
Max Increase   -6.51% -7.54% -5.97% -5.65% -12.81% -8.60% -7.05% -5.92% -4.86% -3.89% -5.29%
Avg Days to Max Increase   13 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 6 7 3
2019 Contract Condition   Yes         Yes Yes Yes      
Action   No         Yes Yes Yes      
High 1254.6 1239.7 1268.3 1263.3 1304.9 1342.5 1361.5 1335.7 1320.7 1311.9 1442.9 1454.4
Low 1202.0 1210.0 1211.5 1222.5 1245.4 1294.9 1317.7 1294.8 1273.9 1273.1 1310.9 1384.7
Close/Last 1229.1 1219.0 1238.7 1244.0 1300.2 1337.8 1328.9 1304.5 1291.7 1311.1 1413.7 1426.1

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