MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Gold(CMX) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		44	44	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		27	18	23	21	22	21	16	19	20	16	21
Exceeded High		16	14	18	18	16	14	11	12	15	12	17
Scenario Percentage		59%	78%	78%	86%	73%	67%	69%	63%	75%	75%	81%
Avg Max Increase		9.20%	7.28%	11.32%	11.18%	6.41%	4.64%	7.97%	6.89%	6.46%	6.09%	7.24%
Max Increase		22.72%	17.78%	103.03%	58.22%	15.10%	11.14%	24.84%	13.80%	25.41%	14.18%	25.62%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	11	16	16	15	17	13	17	13	15	17
Avg Max Decline		-0.92%	-1.03%	-1.55%	-1.31%	-1.77%	-1.38%	-1.02%	-1.66%	-1.53%	-1.35%	-1.40%
Max Decline		-4.16%	-3.13%	-8.14%	-8.72%	-6.76%	-4.67%	-2.04%	-7.05%	-4.89%	-4.32%	-3.56%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	4	7	7	7	8	5	8	5	9	3
2019 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		44	44	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		17	26	21	23	23	24	29	26	25	28	24
Penetrated Low		12	23	16	17	18	22	23	22	19	17	17
Scenario Percentage		71%	88%	76%	74%	78%	92%	79%	85%	76%	61%	71%
Avg Max Decline		4.63%	5.23%	6.95%	7.23%	5.14%	6.65%	4.80%	5.33%	6.88%	5.64%	3.78%
Max Decline		8.59%	14.35%	25.16%	21.14%	20.15%	29.37%	10.55%	19.96%	19.39%	18.48%	14.55%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	15	17	17	14	14	17	18	15	11	14
Avg Max Increase		-1.61%	-1.97%	-1.79%	-0.69%	-2.11%	-1.53%	-1.64%	-2.28%	-1.78%	-1.03%	-0.94%
Max Increase		-6.51%	-7.54%	-5.97%	-5.65%	-12.81%	-8.60%	-7.05%	-5.92%	-4.86%	-3.89%	-5.29%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	9	10	9	9	10	10	10	6	7	3
2019 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No					Yes	Yes	Yes
High	1254.6	1239.7	1268.3	1263.3	1304.9	1342.5	1361.5	1335.7	1320.7	1311.9	1442.9	1454.4
Low	1202.0	1210.0	1211.5	1222.5	1245.4	1294.9	1317.7	1294.8	1273.9	1273.1	1310.9	1384.7
Close/Last	1229.1	1219.0	1238.7	1244.0	1300.2	1337.8	1328.9	1304.5	1291.7	1311.1	1413.7	1426.1