MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Gold(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		40	40	40	40	41	41	41	41	41	41	41
Closed Higher		26	16	21	19	18	19	14	17	18	14	18
Exceeded High		16	13	16	16	13	12	9	11	13	10	14
Scenario Percentage		62%	81%	76%	84%	72%	63%	64%	65%	72%	71%	78%
Avg Max Increase		9.20%	7.43%	11.80%	12.02%	6.26%	4.61%	8.75%	7.03%	6.47%	5.95%	7.48%
Max Increase		22.72%	17.78%	103.03%	58.22%	12.19%	11.14%	24.84%	13.80%	25.41%	14.18%	25.62%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	10	15	15	14	16	15	16	13	14	15
Avg Max Decline		-0.92%	-1.01%	-1.57%	-1.44%	-2.01%	-1.15%	-0.99%	-1.17%	-1.67%	-1.44%	-1.33%
Max Decline		-4.16%	-3.13%	-8.14%	-8.72%	-6.76%	-2.97%	-1.97%	-5.22%	-4.89%	-4.32%	-3.56%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	3	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	11	3
2015 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	No				No

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		40	40	40	40	41	41	41	41	41	41	41
Closed Lower		14	24	19	21	23	22	27	24	23	26	23
Penetrated Low		10	21	14	17	18	20	22	20	18	15	16
Scenario Percentage		71%	88%	74%	81%	78%	91%	81%	83%	78%	58%	70%
Avg Max Decline		4.84%	5.04%	7.53%	7.23%	5.14%	7.06%	4.91%	5.50%	6.86%	5.69%	3.60%
Max Decline		8.59%	14.35%	25.16%	21.14%	20.15%	29.37%	10.55%	19.96%	19.39%	18.48%	14.55%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	15	18	17	14	14	18	18	15	11	13
Avg Max Increase		-1.29%	-1.84%	-1.85%	-0.69%	-2.11%	-1.64%	-1.66%	-2.47%	-1.84%	-1.10%	-1.00%
Max Increase		-3.42%	-7.54%	-5.97%	-5.65%	-12.81%	-8.60%	-7.05%	-5.92%	-4.86%	-3.89%	-5.29%
Avg Days to Max Increase		14	9	11	9	9	9	10	11	5	7	3
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes				Yes	No	Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High	1321.5	1287.2	1255.8	1208.0	1239.3	1309.0	1286.0	1224.0	1225.0	1232.8	1205.7	1174.4
Low	1279.0	1208.0	1167.0	1135.3	1147.8	1173.6	1193.9	1143.8	1175.2	1170.0	1162.1	1072.3
Close/Last	1290.4	1214.3	1174.3	1176.8	1185.9	1280.7	1214.7	1184.1	1183.4	1189.8	1171.8	1094.9