MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Gold(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		38	38	38	38	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
Closed Higher		26	16	20	18	16	18	14	16	17	13	18
Exceeded High		16	13	15	15	12	11	9	11	13	9	15
Scenario Percentage		62%	81%	75%	83%	75%	61%	64%	69%	76%	69%	83%
Avg Max Increase		9.20%	7.43%	11.84%	12.13%	5.77%	4.55%	8.75%	7.03%	6.47%	6.42%	7.48%
Max Increase		22.72%	17.78%	103.03%	58.22%	11.03%	11.14%	24.84%	13.80%	25.41%	14.18%	25.62%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	10	14	15	14	16	15	16	13	15	16
Avg Max Decline		-0.92%	-1.01%	-1.51%	-1.47%	-2.19%	-1.30%	-0.99%	-1.17%	-1.67%	-1.49%	-1.39%
Max Decline		-4.16%	-3.13%	-8.14%	-8.72%	-6.76%	-2.97%	-1.97%	-5.22%	-4.89%	-4.32%	-3.56%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	3	7	7	8	5	6	6	6	12	3
2013 Contract Condition		Yes						Yes				Yes
Action		Yes						No				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		38	38	38	38	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
Closed Lower		12	22	18	20	23	21	25	23	22	25	21
Penetrated Low		8	19	13	17	18	19	21	19	17	14	15
Scenario Percentage		67%	86%	72%	85%	78%	90%	84%	83%	77%	56%	71%
Avg Max Decline		4.32%	4.84%	7.70%	7.23%	5.14%	7.12%	4.99%	5.69%	7.23%	5.49%	3.89%
Max Decline		8.59%	14.35%	25.16%	21.14%	20.15%	29.37%	10.55%	19.96%	19.39%	18.48%	14.55%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	14	17	17	14	14	17	19	16	10	13
Avg Max Increase		-0.91%	-2.04%	-1.93%	-0.69%	-2.11%	-1.69%	-1.57%	-2.38%	-1.92%	-1.16%	-0.86%
Max Increase		-2.05%	-7.54%	-5.97%	-5.65%	-12.81%	-8.60%	-7.05%	-5.92%	-4.86%	-3.89%	-5.29%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	9	11	9	9	10	9	11	5	7	3
2013 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	1703.0	1798.0	1804.5	1759.7	1729.0	1702.4	1686.4	1619.3	1604.1	1488.5	1423.3	1348.7
Low	1598.5	1702.5	1709.0	1680.9	1642.4	1634.1	1560.0	1564.9	1323.0	1338.0	1179.4	1206.9
Close/Last	1695.9	1782.0	1727.0	1718.8	1682.0	1666.1	1581.3	1597.4	1473.5	1393.0	1223.7	1312.4