MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Gold(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		33	33	33	33	34	34	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Higher		22	13	16	16	14	14	12	14	15	11	14
Exceeded High		13	10	12	14	10	9	8	9	11	8	10
Scenario Percentage		59%	77%	75%	88%	71%	64%	67%	64%	73%	73%	71%
Avg Max Increase		9.17%	6.91%	13.13%	12.02%	5.82%	3.71%	8.66%	7.65%	7.16%	6.67%	7.49%
Max Increase		22.72%	14.41%	103.03%	58.22%	11.03%	7.05%	24.84%	13.80%	25.41%	14.18%	25.62%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	11	14	15	13	13	16	17	14	14	13
Avg Max Decline		-1.00%	-1.05%	-1.19%	-0.95%	-2.05%	-1.08%	-0.89%	-1.09%	-1.68%	-1.29%	-1.24%
Max Decline		-4.16%	-3.13%	-7.52%	-5.91%	-6.76%	-2.68%	-1.97%	-5.22%	-4.89%	-4.32%	-3.56%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	2	8	7	7	2	6	7	6	12	3
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		33	33	33	33	34	34	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Lower		11	20	17	17	20	20	22	20	19	22	20
Penetrated Low		8	17	12	15	16	18	19	17	16	12	15
Scenario Percentage		73%	85%	71%	88%	80%	90%	86%	85%	84%	55%	75%
Avg Max Decline		4.32%	5.01%	7.93%	7.41%	5.18%	6.61%	4.72%	4.70%	6.73%	6.07%	3.79%
Max Decline		8.59%	14.35%	25.16%	21.14%	20.15%	29.37%	10.55%	14.94%	19.39%	18.48%	14.55%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	14	18	18	14	14	17	18	15	11	13
Avg Max Increase		-0.91%	-1.85%	-2.04%	-0.33%	-2.07%	-1.65%	-1.63%	-2.57%	-1.91%	-1.18%	-0.86%
Max Increase		-2.05%	-7.54%	-5.97%	-2.71%	-12.81%	-8.60%	-7.05%	-5.92%	-4.86%	-3.89%	-5.29%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	9	12	9	9	9	10	12	5	9	3
2008 Contract Condition				Yes				Yes	Yes			Yes
Action				No				Yes	Yes			Yes
High	710.3	773.5	825.2	869.3	863.3	950.7	985.5	1039.8	959.5	940.1	937.7	989.6
Low	679.3	712.7	755.7	800.7	807.5	864.6	898.6	916.3	868.6	850.5	859.6	893.3
Close/Last	704.3	773.5	819.6	805.7	855.9	936.5	984.0	925.5	869.4	891.5	928.3	913.9