MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Gold(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		40	40	40	40	40	40	41	41	41	41	41
Closed Higher		20	22	26	16	20	20	18	20	14	17	17
Exceeded High		15	17	18	14	17	16	12	12	8	12	11
Scenario Percentage		75%	77%	69%	88%	85%	80%	67%	60%	57%	71%	65%
Avg Max Increase		13.10%	11.63%	8.99%	7.73%	11.46%	12.30%	6.52%	4.98%	9.59%	6.93%	3.81%
Max Increase		39.45%	36.10%	22.87%	17.87%	103.28%	59.53%	12.25%	11.23%	24.77%	14.45%	15.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	18	15	11	14	16	16	17	14	16	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.94%	-0.40%	-1.55%	-1.58%	-1.73%	-1.77%	-2.32%	-1.32%	-1.11%	-1.15%	-1.11%
Max Decline		-4.27%	-3.52%	-6.24%	-6.23%	-8.99%	-9.14%	-6.94%	-3.04%	-1.99%	-5.25%	-2.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	4	8	2	6	5	7	5	5	7	4
2015 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action			No			Yes	Yes	No				Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		40	40	40	40	40	40	41	41	41	41	41
Closed Lower		20	18	14	24	19	20	23	21	27	24	24
Penetrated Low		15	13	9	20	15	16	18	19	22	19	16
Scenario Percentage		75%	72%	64%	83%	79%	80%	78%	90%	81%	79%	67%
Avg Max Decline		5.59%	7.92%	5.39%	5.43%	7.14%	7.38%	5.25%	7.39%	4.92%	4.64%	4.74%
Max Decline		19.65%	21.71%	8.45%	14.61%	25.07%	21.53%	20.33%	29.03%	10.42%	13.80%	13.62%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	20	15	13	16	16	14	15	19	15	14
Avg Max Increase		-0.93%	-1.52%	-1.45%	-1.93%	-1.77%	-1.00%	-2.27%	-1.83%	-1.67%	-2.51%	-1.44%
Max Increase		-4.49%	-10.34%	-3.58%	-7.69%	-5.81%	-5.94%	-12.92%	-8.85%	-7.23%	-6.06%	-4.87%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	14	15	9	12	7	8	9	10	11	4
2015 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	No	Yes
High	1327.8	1346.2	1322.3	1280.0	1257.0	1207.1	1240.0	1309.0	1286.5	1223.7	1224.5	1232.0
Low	1246.1	1285.0	1278.0	1208.0	1163.4	1134.1	1143.2	1169.0	1190.8	1142.4	1174.1	1168.4
Close/Last	1324.3	1285.0	1289.6	1213.5	1173.5	1176.4	1185.4	1280.0	1214.0	1183.2	1182.4	1189.4