MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Gold(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		37	37	37	37	37	37	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Higher		18	19	25	16	19	19	16	19	13	16	16
Exceeded High		13	16	17	14	16	15	11	11	8	12	11
Scenario Percentage		72%	84%	68%	88%	84%	79%	69%	58%	62%	75%	69%
Avg Max Increase		13.61%	11.95%	9.45%	7.73%	11.47%	12.42%	6.00%	4.95%	9.59%	6.93%	3.81%
Max Increase		39.45%	36.10%	22.87%	17.87%	103.28%	59.53%	11.38%	11.23%	24.77%	14.45%	15.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	19	15	11	13	15	16	17	14	16	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.92%	-0.44%	-1.62%	-1.58%	-1.66%	-1.79%	-2.54%	-1.48%	-1.11%	-1.15%	-1.11%
Max Decline		-4.27%	-3.52%	-6.24%	-6.23%	-8.99%	-9.14%	-6.94%	-3.04%	-1.99%	-5.25%	-2.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	4	9	2	6	5	7	5	5	7	4
2012 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	No		Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		37	37	37	37	37	37	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Lower		19	18	12	21	17	18	22	19	25	22	22
Penetrated Low		14	13	7	17	13	15	17	17	21	17	14
Scenario Percentage		74%	72%	58%	81%	76%	83%	77%	89%	84%	77%	64%
Avg Max Decline		5.56%	7.92%	4.92%	5.29%	7.45%	7.38%	5.18%	6.96%	5.00%	4.28%	4.80%
Max Decline		19.65%	21.71%	8.45%	14.61%	25.07%	21.53%	20.33%	29.03%	10.42%	10.02%	13.62%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	20	15	12	16	16	14	15	18	16	15
Avg Max Increase		-0.79%	-1.52%	-1.00%	-2.11%	-1.90%	-0.99%	-2.32%	-1.85%	-1.57%	-2.50%	-1.46%
Max Increase		-4.49%	-10.34%	-2.06%	-7.69%	-5.81%	-5.94%	-12.92%	-8.85%	-7.23%	-6.06%	-4.87%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	14	13	9	12	7	8	9	10	11	4
2012 Contract Condition				Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				No			No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	1565.0	1635.6	1917.6	1928.3	1757.5	1808.5	1772.0	1753.1	1794.3	1729.6	1685.4	1672.3
Low	1501.1	1489.5	1615.4	1544.1	1604.5	1678.2	1528.6	1576.9	1680.0	1629.8	1613.0	1526.7
Close/Last	1509.6	1635.6	1836.5	1627.2	1730.6	1755.4	1571.6	1743.3	1714.0	1671.9	1664.2	1562.6