MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Gold(CMX) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		35	35	35	35	35	35	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Higher		17	17	24	14	17	18	15	17	12	15	16
Exceeded High		12	14	16	12	15	15	10	10	7	11	11
Scenario Percentage		71%	82%	67%	86%	88%	83%	67%	59%	58%	73%	69%
Avg Max Increase		13.26%	12.53%	9.49%	8.19%	12.02%	12.42%	6.31%	4.32%	9.60%	7.44%	3.81%
Max Increase		39.45%	36.10%	22.87%	17.87%	103.28%	59.53%	11.38%	7.05%	24.77%	14.45%	15.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	20	16	12	14	15	15	16	16	17	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.98%	-0.42%	-1.72%	-1.47%	-1.76%	-1.79%	-2.60%	-1.43%	-1.00%	-1.16%	-1.11%
Max Decline		-4.27%	-3.52%	-6.24%	-6.23%	-8.99%	-9.14%	-6.94%	-3.04%	-1.99%	-5.25%	-2.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	4	9	3	7	5	7	4	5	7	4
2010 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		35	35	35	35	35	35	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Lower		18	18	11	21	17	17	21	19	24	21	20
Penetrated Low		14	13	7	17	13	15	17	17	20	16	14
Scenario Percentage		78%	72%	64%	81%	76%	88%	81%	89%	83%	76%	70%
Avg Max Decline		5.56%	7.92%	4.92%	5.29%	7.45%	7.38%	5.18%	6.96%	4.81%	4.03%	4.80%
Max Decline		19.65%	21.71%	8.45%	14.61%	25.07%	21.53%	20.33%	29.03%	10.42%	10.02%	13.62%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	20	15	12	16	16	14	15	18	16	15
Avg Max Increase		-0.79%	-1.52%	-1.00%	-2.11%	-1.90%	-0.99%	-2.32%	-1.85%	-1.61%	-2.62%	-1.46%
Max Increase		-4.49%	-10.34%	-2.06%	-7.69%	-5.81%	-5.94%	-12.92%	-8.85%	-7.23%	-6.06%	-4.87%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	14	13	9	12	7	8	9	11	11	4
2010 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			No				Yes	Yes		No
High	995.0	964.0	974.4	1029.0	1075.0	1199.0	1230.0	1164.1	1132.6	1146.6	1182.5	1249.7
Low	923.3	911.3	939.1	954.8	993.8	1054.0	1077.5	1075.8	1045.6	1086.1	1112.3	1156.2
Close/Last	934.2	959.9	957.2	1012.8	1043.5	1184.7	1098.8	1084.8	1120.1	1114.5	1180.7	1212.2